Royal Ascot selections Saturday 22nd June
We come to the end of another high octane week at Royal Ascot and the action is every bit as good today for the finale. The sprinters take centre stage with the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes and the second big betting bonanza of the week, the Wokingham. I am again looking at four races across the afternoon. We had to settle for each-way returns on Friday through Ziggy (advised 14/1), Indelible (5/1) and Shagraan (advised 13/2).
Ascot 3.45: Mitbaahy & Believing
I have two picks for the final Group 1 of the meeting.
With Jim Hay having bought MITBAAHY recently, this horse has been reinvented as a 6f performer having looked a minimum distance specialist previously. The reason is that Jamie Spencer is first jockey to Hay and his quiet riding style is allowing this horse to last the extra furlong.
That was certainly the case when he produced a power pack finish to win a Group 2 at the Curragh last month, a race that has been franked by Regional’s cracking run here on Tuesday. He had also won over the trip at Chester last month. He has plenty of winning form on fast ground and Spencer has opted for him over last year’s winner Khaadem for the same connections.
BELIEVING is on a roll at present and ran right up to her best when staying on into fourth over the 5f on Tuesday. That followed a smooth fast ground win at Haydock earlier this month, again over the minimum trip.
Whilst she had the natural pace to run to her best there, we know she sees out the 6f well as she had the stamina to win over 6f at Pontefract last season and was third behind Regional in the Sprint Cup at Haydock over 6f. Whilst this will be her third run of the month, fillies can often thrive for racing when they are fit and well as she clearly is right now.
Ascot 5.05: Harry Three, Dark Trooper & Mums Tipple
Three against the field for the Wokingham.
If HARRY THREE retains all the ability that saw him soar through the ratings in 2022 as a 3yo then he will be right in the mix. A comeback fourth in a listed race at Salisbury last month was a positive return, giving hope he will have been spot on for this.
His running style when winning good handicaps at Newmarket and then the valuable Heritage handicap at York bodes well for Ascot as he is a come from behind horse who finishes strongly. He showed he had the class to compete at pattern level when winning at Deauville before finishing sixth in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup, a track that does not play to his strengths. The booking of Ryan Moore suggests connections mean business here.
DARK TROOPER was a very progressive 3yo for Ed Walker last summer winning on all types of ground. His win here on fast ground off 97 confirmed he can handle quick conditions perfectly well. He performed adequately in three races in Bahrain over the winter, but was right back to his best when landing a small prize at Saint Cloud recently.
He showed enough in those handicap wins last year though to suggest that a race like this will bring out the best in him as he likes to come from the back of a strong pace. Bought by Wathnan Racing, who target this meeting, this will surely have been a target since the purchase was made.
MUMS TIPPLE has never been the most consistent of performers, but he is building up a solid record at Ascot, including when fourth in this race on similar ground last season. He can race off 4lbs lower today which must give him an excellent chance of being involved.
He was a decent fourth at Newmarket last month in a similar race, a track that places more emphasis on speed. The same can be said about Epsom where he got too far behind early to get seriously involved. However he has plenty of winning form over 7f, and good form here, so the extra stamina for the race of this type on this track demands will be right up his street.
Ascot 5.40: Old Faithful
It is probably fair to say that OLD FAITHFUL is not the best named horse as he is anything but straight forward. However a change to hold up tactics and a step up to 10f has worked the oracle so far and can do so again today.
He is a very lazy individual who will only do the minimum required, but that can be a good attribute here. He should relax early on in case there is a frenetic early pace and despite two wins from two in handicap company, the fact he has only won by a neck and short-head means he has not been given much of a hike by the handicapper (6lbs in total for the two wins).
A wide draw should allow Ryan Moore plenty of room to get him going in the straight, it will all be about the timing of delivering him fast and late, but in a race of this type, there is every reason to think the leaders will be stopping close home.
Ascot 6.15: Dawn Rising and Run for Oscar
I am sticking with two old favourites for the finale, the longest race of the calendar at almost 2m6f.
DAWN RISING was a game winner of this race in 2023, bouncing off the fast ground and running right the way to the line. That confirmed his liking for stamina, something that seemed obvious in his hurdling career where he ran in the 3m Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham that spring.
His subsequent third in the Irish Cesarewitch was a high quality effort off a high weight too. I am not concerned about two relatively heavy defeats in stakes races this spring as surely his campaign has been largely built around defending his title here and he has never really been put in either race he contested.
RUN FOR OSCAR would surely have given Dawn Rising a real race in this last year, had he not been trapped for room until the final furlong. There is no reason to think that with a clearer run he won’t be on the premises again.
He finished ahead of Dawn Rising in that Navan race and was a highly creditable third in the French Gold Cup behind Trueshan last autumn. He handles fast ground well as he proved here, and when winning the 2022 Cesarewitch. His relaxed running style means he stays forever and I think this race will be run at a faster pace than last year’s renewal which can only be to his advantage.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Mitbaahy – 3.45 Ascot – 17/2 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Believing – 3.45 Ascot – 4/1 Skybet (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Mums Tipple – 5.05 Ascot – 12/1 Bet365, William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Harry Three – 5.05 Ascot – 15/2 Bet365, William Hill (1/5 odds 1st6)
0.5pts each-way – Dark Trooper – 5.05 Ascot – 16/1 Bet365, Betfred (1/5 odds 1st6)
1pt each-way – Old Faithful – 5.40 Ascot – 7/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Dawn Rising – 6.15 Ascot – 9/2 Skybet (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Run For Oscar – 6.15 Ascot – 11/4 general
