Royal Ascot selections Thursday 20th June
Gold Cup day at Ascot, although in truth I find it difficult to get an angle on the big race as it looks tough to oppose the back to form Kyprios. There are plenty of other races to get stuck into though. I am looking at all three handicaps on the card, but perhaps the best bet comes in the Hampton Court Stakes towards the end of the day. We had another solid day yesterday finding two winners. Auguste Rodin (advised 7/4) and Hunt Cup winner Wild Tiger (advised 7/1). There were also each-way places on Laurel (advised 5/1) and Rowayeh (advised 12/1) meaning we have had returns in all eight races featured so far this week.
Ascot 3.05: Gasper de Lemos, Going the Distance & Poniros
Ralph Beckett is already off the mark for the week in the handicaps and he has three strong contenders here, two of which I will be backing.
GOING THE DISTANCE looks a really strong stayer on the basis of his comeback win over 11f at Kempton in April and looks to be have been held back for this since to protect his handicap mark. Stoutly bred, he has powered to the finish in all four of his races to date and the only potential doubt is whether he can handle this first attempt on fast going.
His runs last autumn all came with cut, but in fairness it was pretty difficult to find quick going at that time last year, so that may simply be a coincidence in timing. They usually go a suicidal gallop in this race, so proven stamina counts for plenty. Whilst he has probably got a high enough mark of 94 for what he has achieved, there has looked to be so much in the locker that further improvement has to be likely upped in grade.
PONIROS comes into this off the back of a fine handicap debut when second to Kings Gambit (favourite for the Group 3 contest later on) in the London Gold Cup at Newbury. That proved he has the aptitude for a serious handicap and his running style coming through nicely from off the pace might well work to maximum effect here.
His form in novice company prior to that had been solid, including a second on fast ground at Windsor in April to a horse in Harpers Ferry who goes in a Group 2 here tomorrow. This son of Golden Horn should have no issues with the extra 2f today.
Aidan O’Brien runs four and it is the highest rated, but biggest priced runner GASPER DE LEMOS I favour most. He seems a lazy type who could just be ideally suited by the hustle and bustle of a big handicap.
He was forced to make his own running over 13f at Navan last time, but after getting outpaced, plugged on bravely in the closing stages and he will definitely get the trip today. He had been highly tried prior to that, including a second to the top class Arabian Crown at Newmarket last season. As long as he is not asked to force the pace again today, I can see him staying on strongly late on back down in grade.
Ascot 5.05: Starlore, Involvement & Skukuza
Plenty of goes are probably needed for the Britannia, but I am hopeful my three can give us a good run.
STARLORE was a massive eyecatcher at Goodwood last time, where the unusual nature of the track seemed all against him. Dropped right out the back that day, he saw no daylight until the final furlong, but flew home for seventh late on. He looks sure to benefit from both a stiffer track and extra furlong today.
This horse reminds me plenty of the same owner’s Thesis who won this race a couple of years ago in that he is a very strong traveller who might not find too much off the bridle – but give him a strong pace to aim at, he will keep going. He looked set to win the Group 3 Solario at Sandown last season when quickening to the front 1f out, only to fold up the hill. If he can be delivered at the right time, that brief finishing burst can be used to devastating effect here.
INVOLVEMENT ran a cracker to take second in the Silver Bowl at Haydock last time, coming from way off the pace on that sharp track. I also think he will prefer the much quicker conditions in place at Ascot today.
He showed what he could do on a quick surface when taking his maiden on racecourse debut at Redcar with ease last season. Whilst he was then beaten in two subsequent novice races, he was given plenty to do on each occasion and patient tactics today are likely to be of much more use in a more strongly run affair.
SKUKUZA probably did himself no favours by getting a 5lb rise for winning at Newmarket last month, but he will have gained plenty of experience from that race and is a little more battle hardened than a few.
Kept exclusively to a sound surface, he has run with great credit each time and the stamina on his dam’s side can be used to good effect here. He was off the bridle some way out at Newmarket before winning and an end to end gallop on this stiffer track can see him to even better effect.
Ascot 5.40: Al Musmak
Whilst it was an undeniably poor performance when last of seven in the Dante, there were genuine excuses that day for AL MUSMAK and without that run he would surely be a much shorter price today.
That race was his seasonal debut, so he was entitled to get tired, but he was found to be suffering from illness following blood tests and I think we can draw a line through that effort. He is worth another chance and there was plenty to like about his juvenile form, not least the fact he ran well twice here.
The only two horses to beat him in four runs were Rosallion, arguably the 3yo of the season so far, and Ghostwriter, fourth in the 2000 Guineas and the French Derby this spring. He won first time out here, unusual for a Varian inmate and then beat the classy Macduff at Haydock with Portland well back in fourth.
Ascot 6.15: English Oak & Kings Time
Only two stood out for me in the finale.
ENGLISH OAK looks to have found his niche at 7f and justified very short odds to win with the minimum of fuss at Haydock last time. Even for an 8/11 shot he won in impressively smooth style. That built on an excellent run at Newmarket where he ran out of time to catch Noble Dynasty on that sharper track.
English Oak has already run here when beating all bar Rohaan in a 6f handicap last autumn. However this extra furlong has been the key to him and he looks the one to beat.
In case high numbers struggle again today, the one to go for from the far side should be KINGS TIME. He is another for whom 7f looks be the ideal distance.
He cantered home at Cork last month in his first handicap on a straight track and on a rare day where fast going prevailed at the Mallow track. He has been hit with an 11lb rise, but you can see why and he looks the type to revel in a big field handicap such as this. He had previously won a 7f handicap at Leopardstown and will appreciate the fast ground. He also has the likes of Percys Lad drawn low to set a strong pace.
Recommended bets:
0.5 pts each-way – Gasper de Lemos – 3.05 Ascot – 20/1 Ladbrokes, Boylesports, Coral (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Going the Distance – 3.05 Ascot – 12/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Poniros – 5.05 Ascot – 8/1 general (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Starlore – 5.05 Ascot – 9/1 BetVictor
1pt each-way – Involvement – 5.05 Ascot – 12/1 general
0.5pts each-way – Skukuza – 5.05 Ascot – 16/1 general
1pt each-way – Al Musmak – 5.40 Ascot – 18/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – English Oak – 6.15 Ascot – 9/2 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st6)
0.5pts each-way – Kings Time – 6.15 Ascot – 11/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 6)