Glorious Goodwood selections Saturday 30th July
The final day at Goodwood and the traditional feature on the final day is the Stewards Cup. It looks a classy renewal this year with plenty of group horses taking their chance. However the overall card is as good as it has been all week. I have selections in four races in total. We had two more placed efforts from each-way bets yesterday in Blue For You (advised 9/1) and Lazuli (advised 7/1).
Goodwood 1.40: The Lamplighter
The Stewards Cup consolation is not the usual race with just twelve horses declared, so this makes it more of an ordinary handicap. Lethal Levi is 9lbs well in, so is going to be short here, but he has been having a busy summer and there looks each-way value against him.
Assuming the favourite goes out hard as usual, this could still set up for a closer and THE LAMPLIGHTER is definitely best coming from off the pace. He has also become something of a course specialist having won three times over course and distance and he was third in this in 2020.
He has a decent record fresh, so he should be primed after 55 days off since a rare disappointing run in a small field here. However we saw him at his best when second here on seasonal debut, beaten in a photo off the same mark of 80. His course and distance record on ground quicker than soft here reads 41231125 so it is easy to make an each-way case for him.
Goodwood 2.10: Valley Forge
A winner for us at Haydock back in May, VALLEY FORGE was also fancied to run a big race in the Northumberland Plate on his final start. In the event he raced too handily, was in front far too soon and failed to get home. However he is back to 14f today and has the pace to win this off what is still a fair mark.
His big attribute is the ability to travel strongly off a fast pace, something he used to maximum advantage when winning the valuable Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting last summer. He got away with lasting 2m at Haydock when given a patient ride by David Probert at Haydock, but he can be ridden with confidence of getting home at Goodwood today. There should be no hanging about with plenty of Johnston raiders in the field, so this race should set up very nicely for Valley Forge.
Goodwood 3.20: Chil Chil, Summerghand, First Folio
A classy renewal of the Stewards Cup with some familiar faces back to try and plunder some more big prizes. I have finally narrowed this down to three.
I would not normally be too keen on a top weight, but CHIL CHIL has plenty going for her. This 6yo mare has taken time to thrive but is making up for lost time now. She showed she could cope with big handicaps when winning at Newmarket last spring, and has been plying her trade in group races ever since. The highlight was a third in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last season.
The cobwebs on a belated start to her campaign were blown away with a respectable run in a Group 3 at Newbury two weeks ago. However she was not given a hard time and the suspicion is that was purely to prime her for today. She will love coming off a strong pace and has 5lb claimer Harry Davies on board to aid with her burden of weight.
SUMMERGHAND is an old hand in these heritage handicaps and enjoyed his day on the sun with a win in the 2020 renewal off an 8lb higher mark. He really needs fast ground and won a Group 3 and listed contests at Newmarket last season when getting his preferred conditions.
Of course his handicap mark suffered, but he has been given a chance now back down to 100 and he looked to be coming to hand nicely when fifth in the Wokingham last month.
I strongly fancied FIRST FOLIO in that Ascot race but he was ultimately beaten by the draw, finishing best of all those who raced away from the stands rail. A pound lower today I see no reason to go away from him for the reasons I fancied in him in the Wokingham.
A fast ground specialist he won the big 3yo sprint at York last season. This term he ran well on his reappearance at Newmarket, then was second in a listed contest at Windsor. His Wokingham sixth was worth more than it appears on paper and with the ground in his favour, it will be interesting to see if first time cheekpieces sharpen him up further.
Goodwood 4.30: Mark of Respect & Bolthole
The finale at Glorious Goodwood is the usual 9f handicap- but this time with senior jockeys allowed to ride with no restriction to apprentices only. I can see this race being run at a fast tempo and setting up nicely for horses from off the pace.
MARK OF RESPECT is one of two from the Jonathan Portman yard and is slightly preferred to Sweet Reward due the prevailing fast ground. This is a step up on the races he has been contested but he merits a go after being so consistent in class 4 company. He was just touched off at Ascot over a mile last time but looks well worth a try and this 9f distance having won at Bath over the stiff mile last month.
He seemed suited by this unusual distance when second at Newmarket on fast ground last autumn and has a good inside draw today.
The blot on the handicap though could be BOLTHOLE. I would ignore his run at Ascot given he was drawn on completely the wrong side on the day, but he has travelled ominously well in his races all season.
He had the stamina though to win over 10f at Newmarket having cantered to the lead over a mile at Sandown before having seemingly got tired late on for his seasonal debut. Given his high cruising speed, being held up here could fit the run of the race quite nicely and I suspect he will turn out to be far better than a 90 rated horse.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – The Lamplighter – 1.40 Goodwood – 16/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Valley Forge – 2.10 Goodwood – 13/2 Skybet, Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Chil Chil – 3.20 Goodwood – 10/1 Skybet, William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 8)
1pt each-way – Summerghand – 3.20 Goodwood – 14/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 7)
0.5pts each-way – First Folio – 3.20 Goodwood – 10/1 Skybet (1/5 odds 1st 8)
1pt each-way – Mark of Respect – 4.30 Goodwood – 20/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Bolthole – 4.30 Goodwood – 6/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
