Glorious Goodwood selections Tuesday 30th July
Glorious Goodwood gets underway on Tuesday and conditions will certainly Glorious on what is expected to be the hottest day of the year so far in the South East. The ground which has been on the soft side for the past week, has dried out and perfect good ground is being called for today. I have selections for three races on the opening day. Metal Merchant was placed for the each-way bet on Saturday (advised 11/1).
Goodwood 1.50: Real Gain & Killybegs Warrior
Two horses who have not been in the best of form of late, are expected to bounce back for the opening contest at Goodwood.
REAL GAIN looked a horse of considerable promise when winning at Newmarket last autumn, quickening 5l clear of the opposition on fast ground. That race was over 9f, but he had already won a novice contest at Chelmsford over this 10f distance, so stamina should be no issue.
He has performed moderately in two races this term, albeit they were two of the most competitive mile handicaps of the season at Newbury and then the Hunt Cup at Ascot. It could be that he lacks the pace in the top mile races, but back up to 10f should see him in a better light. The handicapper has started to relent, dropping him 3lbs for those last two runs.
The Johnston family have targeted this meeting over the years, and this race in particular has been farmed and although it is the son Charlie now with his name on the license, the focus has not dropped and he saddles three here, including KILLYBEGS WARRIOR.
This horse has built up a pattern of form over the years where he is very successful at ratings of up to 100, but then reaching the ceiling of his ability on a higher mark. Last year was a case in point when winning at Newmarket’s July meeting off 99 under today’s pilot Kevin Stott. He continued to race with great credit last summer, notably placing for the in the John Smith’s Cup and fourth at the Curragh on Irish Champions weekend.
He started 2024 with promise, placing second at Kempton in April, but since then the wheels have rather fallen off. He was beaten 27l into last in the John Smiths Cup at York recently, so a big turnaround is required. However first time cheekpieces have been reached for, a sharp 10f is his optimum and drying ground will certainly help after this wet spring campaign. The handicapper has given him a real chance by dropping him to 97, 2lbs lower than his last winning mark.
Goodwood 3.00: Kinross
A fascinating Lennox, always one of the key 7f races of the season. With a record reading 121 in this race, KINROSS has to be respected, even though he was below par in the July Cup recently.
The 7yo has been around for a very long time now and has to take on some promising youngsters here, but this race looks to be a perfect set up, with plenty of pace over his favoured trip and he seems to handle any going – and clearly enjoys this downland track.
After a belated start to this campaign, he showed there was still plenty of ability there when just touched off by Montassib at Newcastle, possibly just beaten by a lack of race sharpness. The July Cup was a quick turnaround and he might not have quite been at his peak that day. However I expect him to be fully suited by this race with the likes of Pogo and Audience expected to set a strong gallop, potentially setting it up for Kinross.
Goodwood 4.10: Fair Wind & Navello
Two speedy horse are fancied for this fast and furious 5f handicap.
FAIR WIND has been most progressive this season and could back up a recent win in a valuable Ascot handicap last time. A strong traveller, he is only up 4lbs for that win and the form of that race was boosted by the success of Albasheer at the same track last time.
He was also a strong winner at this track in May, so should cope no problem with the undulations here. He looks an out and out 5f performer and likes a bit of cover, so the fact he is drawn close to perennial front-runner Democracy Dilemma should be a help.
NAVELLO will appreciate the drying ground and has a number of wins in big 5f handicaps to his name already. Most notably he won the 2023 Dash at Epsom, so he does not lack for speed. He is ground dependent as the faster the going the better he goes. This recent heatwave has come just n time.
A good third in the Gosforth Park Cup at Newcastle last month, off this mark of 89, he is in form and the stiffer track at Sandown last time did not play to his advantage. Whilst he has finished unplaced in his two runs here to date, there was an obvious excuse is soft ground last year.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Real Gain – 1.50 Goodwood– 10/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Killybegs Warrior – 1.50 Goodwood – 14/1 Bet365, William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt win – Kinross – 3.0 Goodwood – 7/2 Coral
1pt win – Fair Wind – 4.10 Goodwood – 7/2 general
1pt each-way – Navello – 4.10 Goodwood – 20/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st4)
