Cheltenham selections Friday 14th March
All too soon the Festival is coming to an end and I think this one has been one of the best for some years with some great stories and a much better balance between bookies and punters over the week. The final day of course is highlighted by the Gold Cup where I think it might be sensible to take an each-way play given the make up of the race. We continued our solid week with a win for Jagwar (advised 9/2), whilst Jeriko du Reponet (advised 15/2) and Thecompanysergeant (advised 17/2) were placed for the each-way bets
Cheltenham 1.20: East India Dock
A fascinating Triumph Hurdle, not least because Willie Mullins saddles three decent flat performers who have never jumped a hurdle before in public. However I am keeping it simple and going with another classy flat horse who has proven himself over hurdles in EAST INDIA DOCK.
I would contend that his two course wins at the November meeting and on Trials day rank as the best performances by a juvenile in this country. His jumping has been exemplary, we know he has pace from his days on the level and he has seen out 2m well even on an undulating track.
He has gained plenty of racing experience now having previously performed to a high level on the flat for James Fanshawe and that know how can come in very useful today.
Cheltenham 2.00: Kargese
I am sticking with just the one in a smaller than usual field for the County Hurdle where KARGESE looks the one to side with.
Willie Mullins’ mare found only Majborough too good in the Triumph Hurdle before making no mistake in the equivalent contest at the Punchestown Festival. A keen racer, she is probably going to be best on speed tracks, but in a big field like this, Paul Townend can get plenty of cover which will help her settle and I don’t think this race will be run at the usual frenetic pace.
She was beaten on her comeback run at Ascot recently, but that form took a boost with winner Take No Chances placing third in the Mares Hurdle on Tuesday. That run will have blown away the cobwebs and it is difficult to see, given her high level of achievement already, how she can be only rated 141, below the likes of Hansard and Ethical Diamond in this race. That mark can be exploited to great effect here.
Cheltenham 3.20: Ballybow & Intense Approach
In a race that can often be won by a big priced horse, two attractively priced horses are fancied here.
BALLYBOW has improved dramatically this season and relishes a test of stamina just as owner/stablemate Stellar Story did before winning this last season. He finished lame when well beaten on hurdling debut at Fairyhouse and was then beaten in a Down Royal maiden over Christmas. However the winner that day was Air of Entitlement, game winner of the Dawn Run yesterday.
Since then he has won a Naas maiden by 9l and landed a Grade 3 at Clonmel over this trip last time despite racing lazily and jumping continually left handed. He will be far more at home on this track and should be seen to better effect getting a lead.
INTENSE APPROACH is the one most likely to get that lead, and on his current form he could taking some pegging back. He was a game winner over 3m here back in October and warmed up for this by winning the Trial race at Musselburgh last month. With the ground still reasonably dry, he is fully proven on those conditions and could give Sean Bowen a long awaited first Festival winner en route to taking the jump jockeys crown this season.
Cheltenham 4.00: Inothewayurthinkin
Whilst it is easy to see why Galopin Des Champs will win his third Gold Cup, the fate of many short priced favourites in Grade 1 contests this week tells you this is no formality. With three places available each-way and several in my opinion safely ruled out, INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN looks a very solid each-way play.
A very strong stayer, he showed his ability when running away with the Kim Muir last season top weight. He then successfully transitioned to Graded company by winning at Aintree with ease.
Whilst he has been well beaten in Ireland on all three starts, none of them were a sufficient test of stamina for him and as the youngest in the field he has the most potential for improvement. That improvement should come over a stiff 3m2f. His main weakness is a propensity to jump slowly early on before warming to his task. In a small field, he should not get too far behind and once that stamina kicks in he could prove a danger to all.
Recommended bets:
1pt win – East India Dock – 1.20 Cheltenham – 2/1 general
1pt win – Kargese – 2.0 Cheltenham – 100/30 general
1pt each-way – Intense Approach – 3.20 Cheltenham – 16/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
0.5pts each-way – Ballybow – 3.20 Cheltenham – 14/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Inothewayurthinkin– 4.0 Cheltenham – 6/1 general
