Royal Ascot selections Saturday 24th June
Royal Ascot comes to an end for another year today and we apparently get to see Frankie Dettori one final time in the saddle at the big meeting of the year (unless he reverses his retirement decision in the meantime). The Jubilee Stakes is the feature event, but there is good racing throughout the card and I have selections for four races. We had to settle for a couple of each-way places yesterday in Moracana (advised 33/1) and Conquistador (SP 8/1).
Ascot 3.40: Highfield Princess
The featured Group 1 event has just about the most international field of the week, but this can go to an English trained and owned runner in HIGHFIELD PRINCESS.
I have been persuaded by the ever drying ground that you want a horse with a high cruising speed here and a few of the international runners look like they might want to come from off the pace and they might run out of time to catch up on the conditions. Highfield Princess proved her well being by finishing second here over 5f and whilst she was carried across the course, he was not unlucky.
However she has the stamina for 6f having won the Maurice de Gheest at Deauville over an extended 6f last summer and she was probably not helped by racing down the unfavoured middle in race this year. I strongly suspect that a high draw will be beneficial on the straight track today so being drawn widest might not be an issue. Fast ground is not a problem either and her tactical speed on the conditions might just give her head start she does not concede late on.
Ascot 5.00: Chipstead, Probe, Juan Les Pins
With the early pace seemingly evenly spread across the track, I have three horses stalled in different parts of the track.
CHIPSTEAD is the coming horse who could well be competing in group races by the end of the season. He was first past the post in the Portland at Doncaster (over just 77 yards shorter) only to be disqualified on appeal for interference. However he made no mistake in the Catterick Dash the following month.
His improvement continued once back on fast ground at York last month. That win came over 5f, but he could be so classy that he can get away with the increased distance today and he is unexposed on this fast ground in particular.
PROBE does have to prove he can handle fast ground as well as soft. He struggled a bit on faster conditions at Epsom last time, but that could be as much to do with the unusual configuration of the track. His form at Newmarket in the spring, having moved from the Dermot Weld yard was very exciting, pulling too hard but still running today’s favourite Orazio to 1l on the first occasion (and is 5lbs better off today), but then making no mistake at the Guineas meeting at the same track.
He raced over much further for Weld so I have no concerns about a stiff 6f, and the likely strong gallop should bring out the best in him. Ryan Moore has been booked for the mount and I can see him making a beeline for the near rail, something that worked to maximum effect for him when he rode Rohaan to win this last year.
JUAN LES PINS has no concerns with the ground and is also drawn high which could be of benefit today.
He won well at Nottingham last time despite a tardy start, but a slow start here is not necessarily an issue given his strong point is at the finish. He confirmed his liking for fast ground when a good third in the Ayr Gold Cup last season and that Nottingham win was his first time since with top of the ground conditions.
Ascot 5.35: Canute, Cuban Dawn & Ziryab
The Irish challenge looks strong here and I am concentrating on two of those contenders for this final handicap of the meeting.
CANUTE would be the main choice. He is proven in handicaps over this trip and was always doing enough to win at Navan last time out. The hustle and bustle of a big field handicap certainly seems to bring out the best in this lazy sort who has been blinkered from an early stage.
He ran a cracker to be fourth over a wholly inadequate 7f at the Curragh prior to that (form working out well) especially given he was continually denied a clear run. He is up 11lbs today, but I thought he had plenty in hand at Navan, only doing enough to keep his head in front and Ryan Moore looked at pains to deliver him as late as possible. Those tactics tend to work well in what is likely to be another furiously run handicap where the front-runners stop.
CUBAN DAWN has shown plenty of promise in mile maidens and as a son of Dawn Approach should really appreciate this step up in distance.
He has chased home a couple of useful Dermot Weld maidens in Ireland, being niggled along from halfway before rallying in the closing stages. An opening mark of 91 is not unreasonable and he was put into a listed race on debut where he ran none other than Paddington to 4l. If he handles the different type of test offered by a big field handicap then he can make his presence felt, especially from a favoured wide draw.
The one English challenger that stands out is ZIRYAB. The bottom weight made all to win over a mile at Leicester last time but had previously shown that he is happy coming from off the pace, a tactic likely to have more success in a race like this.
He chased home Mostabshir at York last month, that rival going on to run respectably in a Group 1 here earlier in the week. An extra 2f promises to suit and he has the scope to improve well beyond his opening rating of 88.
Ascot 6.10: Run for Oscar
The usual clash of veteran stayers brings Ascot to a close and Cesarewitch winner RUN FOR OSCAR looks the one to side with.
This dual purpose horse stays 3m well over hurdles, but has always shown a preference for fast ground, something he utilised to win easily at Newmarket from his favourable mark of 90 in the Ces. He went on to place third in valuable 3m hurdle at Haydock on softer than ideal ground next time and warmed up for this with a solid enough run over 12 at the Curragh last month.
He is stamina laden so this marathon test won’t be an issue, but on quicker ground he is blessed with the turn of speed that might prove too much for most of these.
Recommended bets:
1pt win – Highfield Princess – 3.40 Ascot – 7/2 general
0.5pts each-way – Chipstead – 5.00 Ascot – 22/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Probe – 5.00 Ascot – 10/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Juan Les Pins – 5.00 Ascot – 14/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Canute – 5.35 Ascot – 5/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Cuban Dawn – 5.35 Ascot – 12/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Ziryab – 5.35 Ascot – 7/1 Betfred (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Run for Oscar – 6.10 Ascot – 5/2 general
