Sandown & Musselburgh selections Saturday 31st January
Despite the potential attraction of the Dublin Racing Festival, subject to the weather, there is plenty of good racing to enjoy in Britain on Saturday and I am going with two races on the big fixture of the year at Musselburgh, plus two more from Sandown’s featured card. We had a couple of each-way places last week through Scorsese (advised 20/1) and Javert Allen (advised 13/2).
Musselburgh 1.43: Afadil & Static
AFADIL has not won since landing this contest in 2024 from a 5lbs higher mark than today. However he clearly enjoys this sharp track at Musselburgh and he can end a losing run that stretches to fifteen now.
The closest he has come to winning since was when second in this race last year when just giving best to Welsh Charger (and he is 6lbs better off today) and he ran well here on New Years Day when fourth. He looks to be running into form at the right time again and with no weight on his back ought to be bang there as long as he does not give any issues at the start (which has been known occasionally).
At bigger odds, STATIC looks worth chancing. He is another who looks to be peaking at the right time for this contest. He is a strong traveller, but looks best on sharp tracks having faded when falling late on at Chepstow on his comeback.
He was given too much to do when flying home for third at Huntingdon next time, but did not quite seem to get home on a stiffer finish at Kelso and on softer ground last time. He would have gone close in the juvenile hurdle at this meeting last season but for being brought down at the last.
Sandown 2.02: Escapeandevade
Rejuvenated by the switch to Harry Derham’s yard this season, ESCAPEANDEVADE can continue his upward progress with victory in what could be a furious pace for the conditions with several proven pacesetters in the field.
The selection is one of that list, but proved when winning at Haydock recently that he does not have to make all and with Harry Cobden on board, he has a pilot sensible enough to let others make too strong an early gallop if this becomes a race to the front early. Formerly very useful with James Ewart, he won off 128 at Kelso in early 2024, only 5lbs lower than today’s mark.
So despite a rise of 15lbs since joining Derham, he is not on a rating that is blatantly too high. He made a bold bid at Haydock again last time, staying on strongly to the line, but just getting outpointed late on by Koukeo. He has won over 2m4f under rules before, and over 3m in points, and he should have the stamina to last home in a strongly run contest.
Musselburgh 2.20: Insurrection
A 16l winner of the novice chase on this card last season, INSURRECTION made a satisfactory and belated reappearance here on New Years Day and can build on that at a track that clearly suits well.
He is not the strongest of finishers, but on a sharp, flat track like Musselburgh he is able to cope better. He would have gone really close last time if he had not belted three out, and you would expect him to come on fitness wise having not run since the final day of last season.
His wide margin win over Asta La Pasta last season here showed what ability he possesses and I think a smallish field that he faces today is probably what he likes (there were only six others in opposition that day).
Sandown 3.10: Henri the Second
Back at his favourite track and on his favoured heavy ground, HENRI THE SECOND should take plenty of beating in this staying contest.
An excellent second here last time over too short a distance and on ground much quicker than ideal, proves he retains all his ability and took his overall record here over hurdles to 1P4122. That includes a second place in this race last year from a 2lbs higher mark than today and on similar heavy going.
That excellent run last time showed he had got over a bad experience when given another try over fences at Doncaster in November. Not for the first time the big obstacles proved too much, but he is very fluent over hurdles and stamina will be a strong point over 3m on this ground.
Recommended bets:
1pt win – Afadil – 1.43 Musselburgh – 7/2 Bet365
0.5pts each-way – Static – 1.43 Musselburgh – 11/1 William Hill (¼ odds 1st 3)
1pt each-way – Escapeandevade – 2.02 Sandown – 13/2 Unibet, BetVictor
1pt win – Insurrection – 2.20 Musselburgh – 7/2 general
1pt win – Henri the Second – 3.10 Sandown – 100/30 general
