Royal Ascot selections Saturday 21st June
All too quickly we come to the end of proceedings at Ascot and I think the final day card probably has the best balance of all five days now. I have selections for the two handicaps, plus two group races on the afternoon. Adrestia was a winner for us in the last yesterday (SP 10/1) whilst Mount Atlas was placed for the each-way (SP 14/1).
Ascot 3.05: Tabletalk
We have a worthy favourite here in Rebels Romance who could easily get his own way in front and make all. However he is a 7yo now and represents the Charlie Appleby yard who have had something of a shocker of a week at Ascot. As such I prefer to look for value elsewhere and TABLETALK could offer just that.
An improving stayer, he could only finish third in a handicap here over this trip last summer, but progressed from that to win the ultra competitive Melrose at York. Soft ground proved his undoing back here on his final start of 2024, but his two runs this term have proved he belongs in group company.
His two runs at Newbury have been back at this 12f trip, beaten in a photo by Divina Grace on the first occasion, before staying on into second behind Eydon most recently. He will need a bit further improvement to figure here, but he is one of the few younger horses in this race who could do just that.
Ascot 3.40: Satono Reve & Grand Grey
Although they have not brought a huge number of runners across, Japan can end their losing run with victory in the Group 1 sprint with SATONO REVE.
There is no doubt that Asia and Australia hold all the aces in this division globally now and the form this horse has been putting up of late surely exceeds the European form. Whilst he was no match for the superstar Ka Ying Rising in Hong Kong, he was still an excellent second.
He can get outpaced early on, so I have a strong feeling he will be far suited by the straight track here, rather than have to make up late ground in a short run-in after running around a bend as tends to happen in Asia. Fast ground is right up his street and he might simply be too good for this bunch.
As a lively outsider, GRAND GREY is worth considering. He spoiled his chance at the Curragh last time by missing the break, but on the assumption he gets out ok today, he is of definite interest.
He was won of the best juveniles in Italy in 2023 on fast ground, and then ran respectably in France last season, including a fourth over 5f in a Group 3 at Longchamp. Now based with Kevin Ryan, we saw a glimpse of what he was capable of when second in the Abernant at Newmarket, beaten only ½l by today’s rival Sajir. That was on a speed favouring track, but with Jamie Spencer on board we can expect similar tactics today that should work far better on a track like Ascot.
Ascot 5.00: Jarraaf, More Thunder & Completely Random
There are a few horses in here that look to still be ahead of their marks, and those are the ones I am concentrating on for the Wokingham.
JARRAAF is the first of those, who looked rusty on his reappearance in a listed race at Salisbury last month, but that race will have served its purpose for putting him ready for today.
He has already won twice over C&D in the height of summer last season, including in the Shergar Cup. He also went on to chase home Apollo One in a listed race on soft ground in the autumn. I suspect he will be better served by the quick ground today and as a keen racer, will enjoy a strong pace today to get settled in behind runners.
MORE THUNDER has been transformed by the switch from Michael Stoute to William Haggas, and a drop to sprinting. He won a 10f novice last season, but had his limitations exposed at the trip thereafter.
However he has won two 6f handicaps at Newmarket this season, recovering from being outpaced early to fly home late on. I suspect he will be behind early again today, but on this stiffer track, his undoubted stamina should have even more of an effect late on. He can defy a 6lb rise for that last win.
COMPLETELY RANDOM is another who should be suited by a strong pace on fast ground. Gelding seems to have been the making of him as a racehorse.
He had the speed to win over 5f at Southwell (though needed every yard of that trip), before winning with something to spare over 6f at Leicester on quick ground. He was behind Aramram at Newbury last time off today’s mark of 98, but a strong gallop and stiffer track today could help turn that form around. The booking of Cal Rodriguez, who has an excellent record in these sprint handicaps could help too.
Ascot 5.35: Salaall and El Burhan
Two classy looking horses to the top of the weights are fancied here.
SALAALL has already been tested in listed company at Newmarket this season, but that run probably came too early in his career. He has won both novice races he has contested though and won going away at Hamilton last time.
Of course this is a whole different test, but early Group 1 entries suggest this horse is held in high regard and trainer Roger Varian knows the family well having trained his dam Nahrain to win twice at Group 1 level over this 10f trip. As such the step up in distance today should suit ideally.
EL BURHAN has yet to race over even a mile, but on breeding he should need every yard of the trip and improvement over the distance could mean he is a step ahead of the handicapper.
His dam Sar Oiche won over 2m, whilst sire New Bay was a 12f performer, so the fact he was quick enough to win over 7 1/2f around Chester speaks volumes for his ability. He was well fancied that day, but he has a nice relaxed style of racing which should help him greatly over this longer distance. He was an eyecatcher for me when third over 7f at Glorious Goodwood last season and the hustle and bustle of that contest should stand him in good stead for running in a big field handicap here.
Recommended bets:
0.5pts each-way – Tabletalk – 3.05 Ascot – 28/1 general
1pt win – Satono Reve – 3.40 Ascot – 5/2 Unibet
1pt each-way – Grand Grey – 3.40 Ascot – 35/1 Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Jarraaf – 5.00 Ascot – 11/2 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 6)
0.5pts each-way – Completely Random – 5.0 Ascot – 10/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt win – More Thunder – 5.0 Ascot – 7/2 general
1pt each-way – Sallaal – 5.35 Ascot – 5/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – El Burhan – 5.35 Ascot – 10/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 5)
