Time to be Flegmatik

Ascot and Taunton selections Saturday 18th January

The middle day of the Winter Millions and we head to Ascot for the clash of the Titans with Jonbon v Energumene in the Clarence House Chase. Whilst that offers great entertainment, the betting opportunities are plentiful elsewhere on the card. I also have a best bet for the supporting meeting at Taunton. We had placed efforts from each-way bets Sam Brown (advised 6/1) and Navajo Indy (6/1) yesterday.

Ascot 1.05: Rockinastorm

A small field for this staying handicap – but four of the five runners like to make the pace. This might be best left to the younger, progressive legs of ROCKINASTORM.

Henry Daly’s 8yo has been a revelation this winter, building on a promising reappearance third at Chepstow with wins at Ludlow and Wetherby on his last two starts. He has pretty much made all on both occasions and significantly had top front-running jockey David Bass on board both times – he is back in the saddle today.

His jumping was particularly impressive at Wetherby last time and I am hoping some fluent leaps will take him away from the potential pace pressure early on. In D’Or is greatly feared, but he has had only one start over fences and with his amateur jockey on board, I am hoping the greater experience of horse and rider will take Rockinastorm home.

Ascot 2.15: Flegmatik

FLEGMATIK is not one of Dan Skelton’s stable stars, but he usually manages to pick up a decent handicap pot somewhere along the line and this looks the perfect opportunity to do so again today.

This horse has to go right-handed, Kempton being his most favoured track, but he has run some cracking races in defeat here. Notable he was second over this 2m5f trip on similar ground last season before chasing home Victtorino over 3m in December. In truth whilst he just about stays 3m around the sharper Kempton circuit, I think his stamina over 3m here does not quite last out. That should not be an issue back in distance today.

Well beaten on his first three starts of this campaign, he has now dropped to a very workable mark, something he looked likely for a while to exploit here last time. However that suspect stamina gave out over 3m behind Victtorino and the handicapper has dropped him another 2lbs for today. He was last successful off a 5lbs higher mark when today’s pilot Tristan Durrell was in the saddle, beating the top class Chianti Classico at Kempton and this hold up horse is likely to get the race run to suit with Bad likely to ensure a decent gallop in first time blinkers, potentially inducing a late pace collapse.

Ascot 2.50: Altobelli & Moveit Like Minnie

An open looking handicap on drying ground in which I fancy two.

ALTOBELLI has long looked a candidate for stepping back to beyond 2m, winning over this distance by 25l at Carlisle as a novice two seasons ago. Nevertheless he ran two corkers in defeat over 2m here last season, notably a third place in the highly valuable Betfair Trophy behind Luccia.

He was then always outpaced in the big handicap at Newbury and looked to be making no impression on his seasonal return at Doncaster before flying home up the run-in – he would have caught winner Jungle Jack in another 30 yards. This step up 2f looks in order and cheekpieces have been applied for the first time to further sharpen him up for the early stages.

Despite winning on chasing debut, MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE did not take to fences, running out on his last two goes over the bigger obstacles. Not surprisingly connections have opted to return him to hurdles, where he is altogether more straight forward.

He ran well to be fourth to King William Rufus over 2m here at the Christmas meeting, also suggesting he could benefit from going up in distance. Whilst he looked a non stayer earlier in his career in a couple of attempts over 2m5f, this halfway house should be within his compass, especially as he is that much older and stronger now. Good going is a definite plus too and he can surprise at big odds.

Taunton 3.15: Aurigny Mill

There is a step up in distance too for AURIGNY MILL at Taunton, his first go at beyond 2m. However he could not go the gallop at the minimum trip at Ascot last time, staying on grimly late on. He was not helped by being hampered at the third that day, but he might well be more comfortable at this distance now, especially on a sharp track and relatively good going.

Formerly with the now retired Victor Dartnall, he made a sparkling stable debut for Robert Walford when winning by 10l at Newbury in November. Of course has has been hit by the handicapper as a result, but conditional Joe Anderson does ease his burden somewhat by claiming 3lbs, offsetting almost half the 7lbs rise.

He is a horse that looks happier on a flat track, another potential reason for the Ascot disappointment last time and indeed won as a novice here earlier in his career, before narrowly failing to follow up under a penalty. Good going is a definite bonus and his 2m speed could come in handy against largely older opponents in this 8yo and above contest.

Recommended bets

1pt win – Rockinastorm – 1.05 Ascot – 7/4 general

1pt each-way – Flegmatik – 2.15 Ascot – 6/1 Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 4)

1pt win – Altobelli – 2.50 Ascot – 7/2 general

0.5pts each-way – Moveit Like Minnie – 2.50 Ascot – 16/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)

1pt win – Aurigny Mill – 3.15 Taunton – 7/2 Bet365, BetVictor

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