Aintree selections Thursday 9th April
We are set for another of the major jumping spring Festivals as Aintree gets underway this afternoon with conditions on the quick side, though extensive watering will ensure safe going. There is just the one handicap today, which is the main race I am focussing on, but I also have two of the Grade 1’s under the microscope. Our great recent run continued with Soldier in Milan’s easy win in the Irish National on Sunday (advised 7/1).
Aintree 1.45: Minella Study
Having looked the likeliest winner of the Triumph Hurdle jumping the last, I am hopeful that the flatter finish at Aintree will play to the strengths of MINELLA STUDY and he can see things out to the line this afternoon.
Adam Nicol’s Irish import has taken incredibly well to hurdling this season and defeated today’s rival Ammes comfortably in a listed race at Wetherby back in October. From there he made a successful foray south to Cheltenham at the December meeting to win a Grade 2 there.
Kept fresh for the Festival, he was always travelling easily, but just did not get up the hill as well as the first two. Maestro Conti shapes like more of a stayer to me, so I can see the selection reversing the form, whilst favourite Selma de Vary is undoubtedly talented but looks too short a price for one so quirky.
Aintree 4.05: El Fabiolo
It often pays to follow horses at this meeting who have missed the exertions of the Cheltenham Festival and EL FABIOLO could take advantage of that in this Grade 1.
A formerly top class chaser who won a Grade1 novice on fast ground at Punchestown over fences (so ground conditions should not be an issue today), his jumping became increasingly erratic over the bigger obstacles and connections opted to send him back hurdling after successive falls at this meeting and then Punchestown in the spring.
That decision has worked well so far with easy wins at Punchestown and Leopardstown, albeit in a much lower grade. He was found out on heavy going in the Irish Champion Hurdle, but I don’t think this horse possesses the natural speed for 2m at the very top level. This 2m4f trip though will suit, as will the sharp track as I expect Paul Townend to jump out in front and make use of this gelding’s natural exuberance.
Aintree 4.40: Jasko des Dames & Sans Bruit
It is not so much a case of horses for courses as horses for races with SANS BRUIT who bids for a hat-trick in this contest. Just like last year, Sans Bruit comes into this race with little worthwhile form to his name all season. However he does look like he comes alive in the spring and it looks worth investing to see that happen again this afternoon.
This slick jumper likes to bowl along in front and the drying ground, very similar to the conditions he encountered last year, will enable him to do that more easily. His mark is now only 3lbs higher than for his facile win last season – and 6lbs lower than when he went on to follow up in the Sussex Champion Chase at Plumpton only two weeks later.
However for pure value JASKO DES DAMES appeals greatly. This horse is a much better chaser than hurdling, winning on his first two starts in chases at the start of last season. Whilst he has not won since he has run some cracking races in defeat in some big 2m handicaps.
Second at Listowel in the autumn, he filled the same spot in a valuable race at Cheltenham the following month. There is little doubt this horse prefers top of the ground conditions so you can safely ignore his weak effort at the Dublin Racing Festival on soft going. However he ran a cracker in the Grand Annual back at Cheltenham last month. Travelling really well throughout, he hit the front three out, only to fade up the hill. I think this flatter track will be much more to his liking as he is not the strongest of finishers, but his high cruising speed will get him in contention, and there will be less of an emphasis on stamina today.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Minella Study – 1.45 Aintree – 9/2 William Hill (1/4 odds 1st 3)
1pt each-way – El Fabiolo – 4.05 Aintree – 9/2 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 3)
1pt each-way – Jasko des Dames – 4.40 Aintree – 16/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Sans Bruit – 4.40 Aintree – 7/2 general
