Selections for Saturday 11th October
We are really beginning to get going over jumps now with the extended three day meeting at Chepstow the traditional kick starter to the winter season. Sadly fast ground is likely to lead to plenty of withdrawals this afternoon, but the feature race still has a big field at the time of writing. I have two selections for that race, plus best bets on the flat cards at Newmarket and York. Apollo One was placed for the each-way bet last weekend (SP 11/2).
York 2.05: Per Contra
There are usually plenty of surprise results at the final York card of the season and whilst Erzindjan clearly has a favourites chance after his fine effort in the Cambridgeshire. As such I am looking at an each-way alternative in PER CONTRA.
This 4yo has proved a model of consistency for Tim Easterby this season, a year in which the stable has shone throughout. He has however proved difficult to win with as he tends to stop when hitting the front. The addition of cheekpieces recently has seemed to help though, and he went through with his effort when winning by more than 2l at Newcastle on his last start.
He has shown excellent form over this course and distance this season, notably when second on the final day of the Ebor meeting – an occasion when he did hit the front before getting worried out of it. However he did not sport the headgear on that run. Hopefully jockey Duran Fentiman can display plenty of patience and delivery him late. He should be helped by the fact there is such a big field today.
Chepstow 3.20: Rambo T & Royal Infantry
Trainer Dan Skelton is mob-handed for this feature event, saddling five of the sixteen strong field, and on jockey bookings it seems ROYAL INFANTRY is the likeliest of those. The Skelton horses have tended to need their first runs of late, but there is plenty of reasons to think he will be straight enough today.
He has won first time out on each of his two previous seasons under rules, and was quick enough to finish eighth in the 2024 Cheltenham bumper. His two wins over hurdles as a novice last season were ultra impressive and he was fancied to be a big contender in the late season Festivals. For whatever reason, that did not materialise, but he showed more than enough early season to show great promise, including a fast ground win over 2m here.
His last run over 3m at Perth suggested his long term future lies over longer trips than this, but he is not slow and an opening mark of 136 looks very tempting.
RAMBO T also has a good record when fresh, so the lack of a run since May is not off putting. Indeed he was a winner at the Perth Festival in April off the back of an absence of 135 days over this trip on similar ground. He perhaps found the slow pace and sharp track at Aintree against him on his final start, but the gallop will be more generous today and the track somewhat stiffer.
He already has a wide margin success to his name in a maiden hurdle here back in 2023 and whilst slightly slower ground might be ideal, he is classy enough and good enough fresh to make his presence felt today.
Newmarket 3.40: Ndaawi & Reverend Hubert
The trend of increasing numbers of Irish runners and increasing number of horses as well known for their jumping exploits continues in this renewal of the Cesarewitch and both of my recommendations fit into those categories.
NDAAWI did us a good turn, albeit with the help of the stewards, when winning the Galway Hurdle in the summer. That ended a frustrating run of near misses in big hurdles having placed third and second at the last two Cheltenham Festivals and he was also second in the 2024 Galway Hurdle. He has not done too much on the flat since winning as a 2yo at Epsom, but he has the ability to translate his jumps form to the level.
I fancied him for this race twelve months ago, but having held every chance 3f out he faded badly. The official explanation was he did not stay and in that regard the faster ground today will help. However he stopped so quickly that perhaps something was amiss and he is definitely worth another chance at this distance, given he stayed on so strongly at Galway. He had a sighter for this when a close fourth at Chester last month and the application of cheekpieces should sharpen him up a little more.
REVEREND HUBERT is an out and out galloper who relishes fast ground and he gets those variables today.
As a result he is restricted to running in summer jump races, but has made his owners plenty of Euros over the years in that sphere. However he produced arguably a career best effort when winning the Trial race over this course and distance last month, storming home 8l clear of the field. Whilst this contest represents a much stiffer test, it must be added he is effectively 6lbs well in as the handicapper has put him up 10lbs, but he only has to carry a 4lb penalty.
He should be suited by the strong gallop here and whilst there are plenty of potential non-stayers in this field, he is certainly not one of them. He gets a lovely low weight and top jockey Silvestre de Sousa is getting down to his lightest to take the mount today.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Per Contra – 2.05 York – 12/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Rambo T – 3.20 Chepstow – 16/1 William Hill, Unibet (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt win – Royal Infantry – 3.20 Chepstow – 3/1 Unibet
1pt each-way – Ndaawi – 3.40 Newmarket – 12/1 Skybet (1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Reverend Hubert – 3.40 Newmarket – 9/2 William Hill (¼ odds 1st 5)
