Longchamp selections Sunday 3rd October
A very wet Arc day and the only thing that can be said with some certainty about the big race is that a foreign raider will take the prize. However I think the wet weather will turn the race in favour of one of the Godolphin pair. On a stellar card I have selections for two of the other group 1 races on offer. Aldaary was a winner yesterday (advised 5/1), whilst Tomfre was placed for the each-way bet (advised 9/1).
Longchamp 3.05: Adayar
I must admit all year I have expected a filly to win this and make use of their 4lb allowance. However Snowfall’s effort in the trail here was underwhelming, whilst the overnight rain won’t aid Tarnawa’s chances. Instead I am hoping that despite a recent setback, ADAYAR will confirm his status as number one colt in 2021.
He showed promising form in the spring on testing going, but displayed tremendous improvement to storm clear in the Epsom Derby. He confirmed that effort to be no fluke when beating his elders in the King George and despite missing his intended trial here last month, jockey William Buick keeps faith with Adayar over the dual Classic winner Hurricane Lane. With testing ground no issue, I expect Adayar to power through late on.
Longchamp 3.50: Ambition
There is no standout in this fillies Group 1 as the betting exemplifies. Audarya is the narrow market leader, but I am not convinced she is quite in the same shape as 2020, whilst very testing ground is also a slight concern. As a result I think AMBITION rates each-way value to give the home team a rare winner this weekend.
Very much at home on soft ground, she won a Group 3 on heavy at Toulouse as a 3yo and then a Group 2 in Lyon last year. It has been Group 1 races all the way since and whilst she has not yet won one, she has been competitive. She was only a neck behind Audarya in Deauville last summer and was then fifth in this behind Tarnawa last season. She was also only 2l behind Audarya at Deauville on her last start, but the softer going ought to benefit the selection more.
Longchamp 4.25: Glass Slippers
A brilliant winner of this in 2019 the mare GLASS SLIPPERS appears to have been campaigned with the top autumn races in mind and this is the first of two obvious targets to take on – the other being the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint she won in 2020.
She has never won a race before August in any season and last year she came good at this time of year, winning the Flying Five at the Curragh, suffering a narrow defeat in this contest and then winning in America. We did not see her until Glorious Goodwood, where she was well held by favourite Suesa – but Glass Slippers can be relied upon to be in better form today. She improved again when narrowly beaten back in the Flying Five. The ground was quite quick that day, but she has already shown she can cope with testing going, as it was when a 3l winner of this in 2019.
Recommended bets:
1pt win – Adayar – 3.05 Longchamp – 4/1 Betfred
1pt each-way – Ambition – 3.50 Longchamp – 12/1 Bet365, Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Glass Slippers – 4.25 Longchamp – 4/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
