Newbury selections Saturday 17th May
Newbury’s big flat day of the year sees the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes take centre stage. This year’s renewal looks an excellent one, even with the rarity of no representation from Aidan O’Brien. I have selections from four races on a strong card throughout. Our sole selection yesterday, Tony Montana was narrowly defeated but collected for the each-way place money (advised 7/1).
Newbury 2.00: Genealogy
A race Aidan O’Brien has started targeting in recent years and GENEALOGY has strong claims in this if straight enough to do himself justice on his first start of 2025.
He looked as green as grass in three starts last season, each over a mile, and on every occasion he was only really getting going in the closing stages. He started by running his long odds-on stablemate Acapulco Bay quite close at the Curragh, staying on into second. He was barely on the bridle next time at Punchestown, having to be driven to the front early on, handing off the bend, getting headed and then rallying strongly to pip Storm Piece late on. That horse is now rated exactly the same as Genealogy after a recent win at Gowran.
He was well held in a Group 3 at Newmarket on his final start, but given his greenness an undulating track like that was probably not in his favour. As usual O’Brien has an embarrassment of riches in the middle distance division, hence this one has been kept away from the recent Classic Trials. He does hold entries though in both the Irish 2000 Guineas and Irish Derby, and a rating of 96 looks exploitable.
Newbury 2.35: Rosallion
An excellent field has assembled for the Lockinge, but I am going to keep this simple and go with what I think is the classiest horse in ROSALLION.
A real fast ground specialist, he overturned form in the Newmarket Guineas with Notable Speech in no uncertain terms when thrashing that rival and several other top class performers in the St James Palace at Ascot, relishing the firm ground and strong pace. In between those races he had also landed the Irish 2000 Guineas in style.
The big question is whether he is forward enough on his first start in eleven months to defeat this stellar field. He has had three racecourse gallops though, so trainer Richard Hannon believes he is good to go. It would be no surprise to see stablemate Persica (proven over further) and drawn next to Rosallion go to the front as a glorified pacemaker, though the presence of Fallen Angel should ensure a true gallop anyway.
Newbury 3.45: Elmonjed & Indian Run
Despite a few non-runners I am going two against the field here.
ELMONJED made a satisfactory reappearance at Newmarket last month, finishing fourth to stablemate More Thunder (winner again since) on ground probably softer than ideal. He looks sure to come on for that run and significantly the blinkers he wore to good effect last season, but were left off at Newmarket, are back on today.
Last season he wore blinkers twice and won on both occasions. The valuable Sprint Series final at Windsor and then in a big handicap at York’s Ebor meeting. Fast ground today will definitely favour William Haggas’ charge.
Trainer Julie Camacho is fast building a reputation as someone who can restore a once top class horse back to a good level and can do the same with INDIAN RUN, potentially starting today.
This horse as top class as a 2yo, notably when winning the Group 3 Acomb at York. However in four races in a stop-start campaign in 2024 he beat few horses home whilst racing over 7f and a mile. Camacho though has switched Indian Run back to 6f so far.
A solid mid-division get to know you race at Newmarket was then followed by a vastly improved effort at the same track two weeks ago. He held every chance 1f out before fading late and that run should have brought him to peak fitness for today. Having dropped from a career high mark of 105 down to 95, he looks well weighted to score soon.
Newbury 4.20: Classic
There are plenty of ifs and buts about most of those, so it is no surprise to see My Cloud so short for this given his impressive Ascot win recently. He does look a bit of a last to first merchant though and those tactics don’t always work so well at Newbury. As a result I wanted to look for each-way value and have hopefully found this in CLASSIC.
He is another horse who struggled during much of last season, with the notable exception of a second place in a good Sandown mile handicap. Some of those moderate runs could have been put down to not acting on quite soft ground. However he was gelded over the winter and on the evidence of his comeback run in the Spring Cup here last month, he looks in a good place.
He travelled well, far more like he did earlier in his career and kept on well for third ultimately. He remains on the same mark of 88 for today, but can be expected to have come on for that season opener.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Genealogy – 2.00 Newbury – 5/1 Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Rosallion – 2.35 Newbury – 11/4 general
1pt win – Elmonjed – 3.45 Newbury – 100/30 general
1pt each-way – Indian Run – 3.45 Newbury – 8/1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral
1pt each-way – Classic – 4.20 Newbury – 8/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 4)
