Chepstow & Kempton selections Saturday 27th December
The busy Christmas racing programme continues with the Welsh National taking centre stage at Chepstow. We have an above average renewal this year, though there aren’t too many unexposed types in the field. I have two selections for the big race, plus tips for two other races on the card, plus a best bet at Kempton.
Chepstow 2.10: Keable
Late developing KEABLE can maintain his improvement with another win at Chepstow this afternoon.
He has very low mileage for an 8yo, but connections’ patience are starting to bear fruit now and he began this campaign with a decisive win at Newbury last month over this 3m trip. He has only been put up 5lbs for that, so I am quite surprised to see him drifting to a very backable each-way price this morning.
He improved out of all recognition last winter, landing back to back wins in January. He won by 16l at Exeter, proving his liking for a stiff, undulating track, then followed up with some ease at Newbury two weeks later. One slight issue could be the drying ground, which he is not proven on, but the presence of Santos Blue in the field leaves him on a nice racing weight and there could be more to come from the gelding yet.
Kempton 2.30: Ryans Rocket
Kempton’s big race today is the Desert Orchid Chase, now a handicap and RYANS ROCKET could benefit from the receipt of plenty of weight from most of his rivals.
A was very taken by his reappearance win at Newbury in a race where they went flat out over 2m on decent ground. Despite jumping regularly to his right, he was able to keep up well, before looming into contention two out and the fact he was held up meant he had more left for the finish than those forcing the early gallop.
A 6lbs rise today is not excessive and he ought to be better suited by going this way around as he won’t give ground away should he jump right again. Although he has been tried over 2m4f, this minimum distance does seem like his optimum for now. What will potentially be in his favour are the presence of several horses that need to lead, including favourite Thistle Ask and Saint Segal, so sitting off the pace could well be the place to be.
Chepstow 2.50: Rock my Way & Jubilee Express
Two horses who might yet find some more improvement over marathon trips are favoured for the Welsh National.
ROCK MY WAY produced a dominant performance to land the Berkshire National at Ascot last month, and these sort of races are clearly the way forward for him now. He has been hit with a 9lbs rise, but has less than 11-0 to carry and he is well in with Haiti Couleurs on their running over this trip at the Cheltenham Festival. The selection was only beaten 4l by him that day and is a full 1llbs better off today.
He will have no issue with good-to-soft going, and he is the sort of horse who likes to be ridden handy, a tactic that often pays dividends in this race as it is so difficult to come from the back in this big field. Whilst he was only a fair fifth in the Scottish National last season, that race came at the end of a long, hard season and he might have been a little over the top by then, whilst this stiffer track will be more to his liking anyway.
Sam Thomas has already tasted success in this race and in JUBILEE EXPRESS he will be hoping to go one place better than his fine second in this race last season. He is only 4lbs higher today, that despite winning the trial race over 3m here earlier in the month.
That run showed this horse is not short of pace and does not need really soft conditions to give of his best. His run in this race last year showed he needs a real stiff test of stamina and he has already won over an extended 3m4f at Haydock in the past. His jumping is improving now, but he remains unexposed and with no weight to carry he really should be bang in the mix once more.
Chepstow 3.25: Ben Solo
We could have another Welsh winner with BEN SOLO in the last.
This horse has really taken to fencing with aplomb this season. After a sighter over 2m first time out, he produced a really fine jumping display to make most and win over this trip here next time. He looked certain to follow up over this same course and distance at the last meeting, only to be out-speeded by Just Over Land late on. The winner that day might just have been one of the best handicapped horses in training, and might prove that if he goes to Cheltenham next week.
It was no disgrace to give best to him late on, but it was another sound jumping display, something that should once again hold him in good stead today. There is surely better to come from this 6yo who is reunited with Jamie Brace who has got on so well with him in those last two starts.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Keable – 2.10 Chepstow – 17/2 general
1pt win – Ryans Rocket – 2.30 Kempton – 5/2 Boylesports
1pt each-way – Rock My Way – 2.50 Chepstow – 6/1 William Hill (¼ odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Jubilee Express – 2.50 Chepstow – 5/1 Skybet (1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt win – Ben Solo – 3.25 Chepstow – 7/4 general
