Ascot & Wetherby selections Saturday 1st November
The jumps season really starts to take precedence now as we move into November and we have three really big meetings to get stuck into. Down Royal provides the first Grade 1 action of the winter, but I am concentrating on a typically competitive opening day of the season at Ascot. My best bet though comes in the feature at Wetherby. Three Card Brag got us in front for the day at Cheltenham last week with a win (advised 8/1) whilst Long Draw was placed for the each-way bet (SP 11/2).
Ascot 2.05: Shakeyatailfeather
A race that still has a competitive edge, despite the loss of three of the class acts in the field. SHAKEYATAILFEATHER is an out and out good ground mare, and is fully fit, so looks the percentage call here.
She was kept busy on fast ground in the spring as Dan Skelton’s desperate bid to become champion trainer went on, and she won twice in four days at Cheltenham and Plumpton. On the latter occasion, she just got away with the extended 2m3f trip, but in my eyes she is a true 2m performer.
She was beaten in two summer jump races over further, including the Summer Plate at Market Rasen, but restored to 2m at Kelso last month, she arguably produced a career best effort to beat Traprain Law by 7l. She is effectively 9lbs higher today, but that is offset somewhat by Harry Atkins claim and with only 9-9 to carry she will feel as if she has been let loose.
Wetherby 2.57: Pic D’Orhy
Despite the loss of Protektorat, this is still a fascinating Charlie Hall, one that could be decided in the first couple of furlongs. With three of these particularly effective at making the pace, it could be the one who can get to the front and dictate the pace that comes out on top, and the fastest of those three is surely PIC D’ORHY.
If Harry Cobden can send him on and get him into an early rhythm he could be difficult to peg back on this fast ground. My hopes are enhanced by the fact he has won first time out for each of the past four seasons, so the lack of a recent run is, if anything, a bonus. He has gone to Ascot’s next meeting to start his campaigns for the past two seasons, but the fact connections have chosen to come here, suggest he has trained well this autumn.
The big issue is stamina as Paul Nicholls has yet to even try him over 3m. However the fast ground and sharp track at Wetherby should aid the preservation of his stamina. He was showing no signs of stopping when landing the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in February over 2m5f, and you can ignore his last run as he made a race ending mistake at Sandown early on. Normally he is a very slick jumper and Cobden can utilise that asset to great effect here.
Ascot 3.10: Indemnity
I quickly reduced this race to the two obvious contenders, both horses with good records on the level and who have transferred their skillsets to hurdles with aplomb. However preference is for INDEMNITY over Alexei.
The 5yo reached a rating of 85 on the flat when with Roger Varian and took a little time to get used to his new discipline over the winter, pulling too hard in novice events. He therefore only earned a rating of 101 by the time he switched to handicaps and having settled better now, has won 3-3 in that sphere.
All of those wins have come on similar good going, including a cosy success at Market Rasen only two weeks ago. A 6lbs rise looks fair and whilst this race represents a big step up in grade, we know he has the cruising speed to cope, given his decent flat form and so far he has jumped soundly.
Ascot 3.45: Beachcomber & Neon Moon
I have two each-way fancies for the staying chase.
BEACHCOMBER is a true front-runner who has to go right-handed and acts well on good ground. I am hoping the O’Neill team have got this gelding ready to go first time, which you would hope they have given the size of the prize pot. We last saw him running a fine third at the Punchestown Festival in a race where he kept to the inside of the track, whilst the first two home found better ground out wide.
When allowed the head of the race, he was an impressive 10l winner at Kempton over Christmas, and the blinkers which brought about an apparent big improvement that day, are immediately applied here, giving further hope that this is a big target for the horse.
NEON MOON has an excellent record fresh and so today could be the time to catch him. The 9yo has won first time up for each of the past two seasons, including a valuable race at Chepstow last season. He then went on to finish an excellent second in this contest next time, from a mark 6lbs higher than today.
The fact he has dropped in the weights reflects the fact his form rather tailed off after that, a trend that has occurred frequently throughout his career. That said he was a fair fourth in the Staffordshire Plate when we last saw him six months ago. However it is that six month break that would give me confidence we will see the best of him again today.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Shakeyatailfeather – 2.05 Ascot – 7/1 Ladbrokes (¼ odds 1st 3)
1pt each-way – Pic D’Orhy – 2.57 Wetherby – 11/2 William Hill (1/4 odds 1st 2)
1pt each-way – Indemnity – 3.10 Ascot – 4/1 Skybet (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Beachcomber – 3.45 Ascot – 14/1 Skybet (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Neon Moon – 3.45 Ascot – 9/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 4)
