Cheltenham selections Friday 13th March
All too quickly we have reached the final day of the Cheltenham Festival and that means Gold Cup day. I have a selection for the big race, but have also looked at each of the first three races on the card, all over hurdles. Meetmebythesea kept us in front for the week with a 9/1 (SP) win on Thursday with each-way selection Regents Stroll placed (5/1).
Cheltenham 1.20: Macho Man
As is now the norm Willie Mullins is mob handed for the Triumph Hurdle, but last year it was the 100/1 Poniros that won the race for the yard. I am hoping that another horse apparently some way down the Mullins pecking order in MACHO MAN wins today.
I was very taken by his debut run in France, where he settled nicely, jumped well, was given plenty to do two out, but then swept through to win the race with a bit to spare. He has run just the once since for the Closutton handler, when keeping on nicely into second behind Proactif at Fairyhouse.
He was not knocked about that day and I think there is more to come from this 4yo. He looks the sort of horse that will take well to the big race environment and his win in France came over further so stamina will be no problem on this stiff finish.
Cheltenham 2.00: Karbau & Joyeuse
Again looking back to last year’s card, Kargese won this for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend and KARBAU can repeat the feat in what is Townend’s only ride all week in a handicap.
He was well beaten in a high class Supreme last season, but ran far better when sent to Aintree the following month. He also ran with great credit at the Punchestown Festival behind stablemate Irancy. He has just had the one run this campaign, travelling well throughout in a Grade 3 at Naas before having to give best to the race hardened Glen Kiln. That should have set him up nicely for today and like Kargese, should have the class to defy a high weight burden.
JOYEUSE won one of the monument 2m handicaps in Britain at Newbury last season, but looks to be one of those mares for whom 2m can be a bit sharp, yet she has not really proven she stays 2m4f. So perhaps 2m1f on a stiff track and with a strong gallop can prove ideal.
Having not taken to chasing at the start of the year, her two subsequent runs over hurdles, both at Ascot have been underwhelming. However she was not suited by the slow pace in the big handicap won by Wilful just before Christmas, and she would have gone close but for a final flight blunder in a mares race last time. Cheekpieces have been fitted to sharpen her up for today and 137 still looks a decent mark considering what she has achieved.
Cheltenham 2.40: Diva Luna
Whilst the Irish challenge is once again seriously strong for the Mares Chase, DIVA LUNA definitely rates each-way value as part of the British party.
She is a very scopey mare who always promised to be better over fences. That said she ran to a high level over hurdles including a win in a novice hurdle here and ran with great credit in the Mares Novice at the Festival.
However she has looked a real natural over fences, storming to wins at Bangor and Warwick with some real fluent jumping and galloping right through the line. The overnight rain should be no hindrance to her – but it might to Dinoblue, and with front-runners doing so well all week here, she is another who can put early pace to her advantage.
Cheltenham 4.00: Gaelic Warrior
For a former winner of the Arkle, GAELIC WARRIOR is shaping like a real stayer these days and I think he is the answer to an unusually open Gold Cup this year.
He always looked slightly out of his comfort zone in the King George, yet kept going really gamely to be beaten only a short-head by The Jukebox Man. Had Paul Townend not dropped his whip late on he might even have won the race. Since then he has run with great credit at the Dublin Racing Festival before having to give best to Fact to File.
He was staying on well to the finish again that day, so I feel he is ready now for the ultimate test of a Gold Cup.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Macho Man – 1.20 Cheltenham – 12/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Karbau – 2.0 Cheltenham – 9/2 general (many bookies 1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Joyeuse – 2.0 Cheltenham – 10/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Diva Luna – 2.40 Cheltenham – 8/1 general (1/5 odds 1st 3)
1pt win – Gaelic Warrior – 4.0 Cheltenham – 7/2 general
