Doncaster, Aintree & Wincanton selections Saturday 8th November
We finally wave goodbye to the flat season at Doncaster this afternoon (at least on turf) with the traditional final meeting run on traditionally heavy November ground. I have two selections who will have no issues with the testing going. Elsewhere there is plenty to look forward to over jumps, despite fast ground at Wincanton and we have the first race of the season over the National fences at Aintree. We had to settle for a couple of each-way places last week through Pic D’Orhy (advised 11/2) and Indemnity (advised 4/1).
Doncaster 1.25: Montassib
Although there is always the chance of some shock results at the tail end of the season, I don’t think this listed sprint will provide a surprise as this should set up nicely for the class act of the race MONTASSIB.
A Group 1 winner last season, this campaign has not gone to plan and it ended up being a rush to get this 7yo ready for a shot at the Champions Day sprint at Ascot last month. He went into that race off one run in a Group 3 over an inadequate 5f at Newbury, where after getting inevitably outpaced early, he finished strongly to confirm he retains his old ability.
On the day the ground at Ascot was much quicker than normal for that meeting, something that certainly went against the gelding. However he was only beaten 6l into seventh and he will get much more suitable ground today. This hold up performer will enjoy this track that plays to the strength of late closers and the conditions of this race mean he does not have to carry any penalty for his Sprint Cup success last September.
Aintree 2.40: White Rhino & King Turgeon
A very competitive Sefton which could easily go to last year’s winner KING TURGEON.
This horse put in a superlative jumping display over the spruce fences, making pretty much all the running on his first visit to Aintree. He showed his ability by going on to win a valuable prize at Cheltenham the following month, before his form started tailing off.
However he does seem to be a horse who is best fresh and therefore might be best following at this time of the year. A wind operation over the summer might help him too and the horses-for-courses epithet is never better used than over the National fences. A similar display to last season must bring him into calculations, even off a 12lbs higher mark. The David Pipe horses are running well too early in the season.
The handicap blot could be WHITE RHINO on only his fifth run over fences.
A progressive hurdler, he took well to fences last season, winning his first two starts at Ayr and Haydock before Christmas. He seems versatile as regards ground conditions and whilst he stays 3m well, he was quick enough to win those two contests at around 2m4f.
You can forget his last run as he burst a blood vessel at Doncaster and in any case had his chance already badly compromised by getting hampered at halfway. He has had plenty of time to recover and although the stable has not started the season quickly, a winner at Ludlow on Thursday gives hope that the horses from the yard are coming good now.
Wincanton 3.30: Gustavian
Not a big field for the Badger Beer, but you would be hard pressed to leave out any of the seven from calculations and the suggestion is GUSTAVIAN in a race that trainer Anthony Honeyball has targeted strongly in recent seasons.
This horse has run in the previous two renewals and was a solid third last season despite getting hampered six out and running from 4lbs out of the handicap. He can race off his correct rating today, which means he is 1lb lower than for last season’s contest.
He does seem best going right-handed and ran his best race of last season when a close second at Exeter to opposing stablemate Credo in February (the selection is 9lbs better off today on conditions that will be more suitable for him than Credo). Whilst he does not have a good record fresh, he has had a wind op over the summer which might elicit some further improvement.
Doncaster 3.45: Miller Spirit
It is only a month since Toby Moore made his debut under rules, but already Ryan’s son has showed his ability in the saddle and that his 7lb claim is already a huge advantage. As such his mount here MILLER SPIRIT has to be considered, especially as further rain overnight has turned the ground on Town Moor genuinely heavy.
It simply cannot be too soft for this 5yo who racked up a hat-trick of wins during the heavy rains of last autumn at Epsom (twice) and Newbury, the last two of which were on proper heavy ground. He then went on to run sixth in this race when the going was merely soft, but because of those wins he was racing off an 8lb higher mark than today and that was before taking into account the claim of Moore.
He has been forced to race mainly on fast ground this season, something he simply cannot operate on well, but the one time in the summer he got soft ground, he ran well to be second at Yarmouth in a Racing League contest. He got his ground at Newbury last time and was beaten on the nod (though later disqualified for his rider weighing in light), but with the ground riding so testing today, he surely must be thereabouts.
Recommended bets:
1pt win – Montassib – 1.25 Doncaster – 15/8 general
1pt each-way – White Rhino – 2.40 Aintree – 10/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – King Turgeon – 2.40 Aintree – 8/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Gustavian – 3.30 Wincanton – 12/1 Betfred (1/5 odds 1st 3)
1pt each-way – Miller Spirit – 3.45 Doncaster – 14/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 6)
