Newbury selections Saturday 7th February
Fortunately Newbury has survived the persistent rain over the past couple of weeks, but make no mistake conditions will be very testing, especially so on the hurdles track. I have selections today for horses who should be suited by conditions. Dan Skelton has huge claims of winning a first William Hill Hurdle ( a race previously known as the Gold Trophy and Betfair Hurdle amongst other guises), but will it be with the favourite or one of the rank outsiders? Henri The Second was a winner last week (advised 100/30)
Newbury 1.35: Kyntara
There is another Skelton hotpot in this race in A Pai de Nom. If that horse stays he is clearly going to take all the beating, but there may be better value to be had with KYNTARA.
This out and out stayer will be suited by heavy going and helpfully he looks the only natural pacesetter in the field, so Charlie Deutsch should be able to go the pace he judges most likely to test the others out. He has not really had the going he enjoys this season to give of his best, but was only beaten 3l at both Aintree and Cheltenham and off a 2lbs higher mark.
We do have to forgive him a very poor effort at Haydock last time, but that tight track would not have suited, and the going was far quicker than a typical Haydock January meeting. Kyntara was only beaten 2l into second by Emiton from just a 1lb lower mark in this very race in 2024 on similar going, en route to a fine second in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham. If he does get a free ride in front, he could prove tough to pass in such gruelling conditions.
Newbury 3.20: Faivoir & Let It Rain
This is one of the few big handicaps that trainer Dan Skelton has yet to win, but he has two big bullets to fire here.
LET IT RAIN is the one that has been long supported in the market and it is easy to see why. She was high class, winning both bumper races she contested, notably a listed race at Ascot. She was given an easy time of it on hurdles debut when not knocked about at Chepstow – but the form of that race looks good now as it was won by the now 146 rated French Ship.
She then looked a graded horse in the making when cruising home over 2m at Wetherby. Sadly injury meant we could not see quite how good she was in novice company at the big spring Festivals due to injury. That does mean the handicapper does not really have a grasp on her and the suspicion is that her 124 rating could be extremely generous, despite being put up 4lbs in defeat at Ascot before Christmas on her only start this season. However she cruised into the contest on the bridle before the lack of a recent outing took its toll and I think you can rely on Skelton to get her spot on for today.
However given the heavy going it would be folly to rule out stablemate FAIVOIR. Now 11, this gelding has run some cracking races in these big 2m handicaps, especially when the mud is flying. Notably he won the County Hurdle at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, but there have been some top efforts even more recently.
He was beaten a nose in the Imperial Cup of 2024, having finished fifth in this race the previous month. After missing last season through injury he bounced back to form in he deep ground Greatwood at Cheltenham in November and is a couple of pounds lower today. The going was too quick for him at Ascot next time, and not for the first time he seemed to fail to stay 2m4f there on his last start. He is therefore not really on the radar betting wise, but at such huge odds and with everything in his favour he looks worth a saver.
Newbury 3.55: Jig’s Forge
I am hoping class will out and JIG’S FORGE can defy top weight in this novice handicap chase.
It is difficult to know what he achieved when winning here on his last start as he only needed to beat one rival, albeit it was the classy Lucky Place. However he got into an excellent rhythm, jumping well and I am sure this 3m trip will turn out to be his optimum.
He had run a nice race on chasing debut at Cheltenham in November over an inadequate trip and showed good ability to finish sixth in the Albert Bartlett in the Festival there last season. An opening mark of 137 looks fair and his horse could be Grade 1 bound with a win here as he holds an entry in the big 3m novice at the Festival.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Kyntara – 1.35 Newbury – 7/1 William Hill (¼ odds 1st 3)
0.5pts each-way – Faivoir – 3.20 Newbury – 40/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt win – Let it Rain – 3.20 Newbury – 3/1 general
1pt each-way – Jig’s Forge – 3.55 Newbury – 11/2 general
