Doncaster, Newbury & Kelso selections Saturday 1st March
Some signature races at the three British fixtures today, the Morebattle Hurdle is Kelso’s premier race of the year, with added lustre these days with a £100k bonus for the winner if they can follow up at Cheltenham next week. The Grimthorpe stands out as one of the big races of Doncaster’s jump race calendar whilst the Greatwood Chase is always a big feature at Newbury. I am focussing on all three contests today. Saint Anapolino was a winner last week (SP 5/1) whilst there were each-way places for Passing Well (advised 12/1) and Our Power (SP 11/1).
Doncaster 3.15: Some Scope & Hymac
If you take out SOME SCOPE’s continued modest efforts at Cheltenham (form figures of 4PP to date), this 7yo gelding is a progressive chaser. His form at all other tracks over fences reads 511241 and a return to Town Moor can pay dividends again.
He cruised to a success over 3m here last season on similar decent ground before running a cracker to be second to Does he Know in this very race – a contest that ended as a war of attrition on bad ground. Some Scope is a better horse on decent ground and loves these galloping tracks that suit his come from behind style. He landed a premier handicap when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby over Christmas and he can continue to do damage from his new rating of 127.
First time cheekpieces can inspire HYMAC to a big performance having run well in defeat in two competitive handicap chases this season. He was a sound third at Cheltenham’s November meeting over 3m3f, though he was never quite up with the pace that day and whilst staying on he didn’t have the pace to get to the leaders.
It was a similar story in the Mandarin at Newbury where he stayed on into second behind Henry’s Friend without ever quite being on terms. Stamina is his strong suit having won a 3m4f handicap around Cheltenham last spring and good going is something he has no issues with. However I think the headgear might be the motivation he needs to be up with the pace from the outset and help bring his stamina into play more easily late on.
Kelso 3.30: Favour and Fortune & Gentleman Bill
A maximum field for the Morebattle with huge prize money on offer for this race nowadays. Class may out here with FAVOUR AND FORTUNE potentially able to defy top weight.
Whilst he has done most of his racing on soft ground, I think he is a better horse on drying going and has ideal conditions today. He quickened up away decisively to take the Scottish Champion at Ayr last spring from just a 2lbs lower mark. He looked rusty on his return at Ascot over Christmas, though the Alan King horses were under performing at the time.
It was much more like it in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last time, keeping on very nicely into fourth behind Joyeuse, despite the going being softer than ideal. That should put him spot on for this contest and a largely flat track and drying ground should suit perfectly.
As an alternative GENTLEMAN BILL looks overpriced. This novice has only had the four runs over hurdles but was an easy winner at Doncaster on his only attempt in a handicap. That was of course a much lower grade and he is 16lbs higher today. However he proved he could cope against more experienced rivals and is a strong traveller who can lie up with the pace in this grade.
He was in the process of giving a Willie Mullins raider a tough test when making a bad mistake at the last at Catterick last time. That race was over 2m3f, but he might be better for now in a strongly run 2m contest like he found at Doncaster.
Newbury 3.45: Saint Segal & Billytherealbigred
Two horses likely to be prominent throughout are favoured for the Greatwood on a track where pacesetters can be tough to peg back.
The going is drying out somewhat from the very soft conditions that prevailed in midweek, and that will help SAINT SEGAL who probably is better on decent going. After a modest start to the season, he produced a transformed performance to win over course and distance in December, thrashing Beau Balko by 11l.
He followed that performance up with a fine second to the progressive The Kalooki Kid at Musselburgh last time, battling back well once headed, even though he had been involved with a protracted battle for the head of the race throughout. Front-running clearly suits well and if David Noonan can keep something for the finish, this 7yo remains in the form to be a challenger here.
BILLYTHEREALBIGRED is one who would prefer the soft ground to remain and perhaps the heavy overnight rain will retain enough moisture for him to be at his best. Another front-runner, he ran a cracker on Trials day at Cheltenham last time, keeping on well up the hill, but just lacking the pace of stablemate Jagwar.
Prior to that he had made all to win at Bangor and made most to win at Exeter in very soft conditions. With his rider’s claim he only has 10-5 to carry today and though he has the tendency to jump left, that won’t be such an issue going this way around.
Recommended bets
1pt each-way – Some Scope – 3.15 Doncaster – 11/2 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Hymac – 3.15 Doncaster – 6/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Favour and Fortune – 3.30 Kelso – 6/1 Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Gentleman Bill – 3.30 Kelso – 33/1 Coral (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Saint Segal – 3.45 Newbury – 15/2 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Billytherealbigred – 3.45 Newbury – 7/2 Coral (1/5 odds 1st 4)
