Ayr & Newbury selections Saturday 19th September
Plenty of rain this morning at Ayr which has turned the ground officially heavy, so we are looking for some mudlarks for the big race of the year north of the border, the Ayr Gold Cup. I have three selections, and am hoping a rail draw will be helpful. I also have another best bet on the Ayr card plus a look at two of the feature races at a much drier Newbury. Almeraq was a winner in the previous column (advised 100/30).
Ayr 1.20: Theoryofeverything
Whilst there are a couple of very unexposed 3yo’s in the field that look interesting, I would be concerned about how deep the ground is going to be now for them and would prefer to look at a more experienced alternative. THEORYOFEVERYTHING appears to fit the bill perfectly.
The first big factor in his favour is a liking for Ayr. In four races here he has placed 1281, all over this mile distance. That includes finishing a strong second in this race last season from a 4lb higher mark than today. He also produced a game performance to win here last month, having been up in the van throughout.
Another big positive is the ground as he revels in soft going. Of his five career wins, four have come on soft, the exception being that win here last month. I would easily forgive him being well beaten on his last start at Beverley as he looked a blatant non-stayer over a stiff 10f and a sharper mile will be more to his liking today.
Newbury 1.37: French Duke
Having been very hit and miss all season, FRENCH DUKE bounced right back to form at the Ebor meeting at York last month, failing by the narrowest possible margin in a big 12f handicap. Despite being hit by a 5lbs rise I am confident this race will bring out the best in him and he can go one place better.
He does seem to be suited by galloping, flat tracks such as York, indeed he was a good second to Hosaamm in a maiden early in his career on his only previous visit to Newbury. As such the fact he produced two sub par efforts at Ascot this summer can be forgotten as that track configuration does not seem to suit.
He does enjoy the fast ground and was a winner at Glorious Goodwood in 2024, as well as winning in Dubai over the winter. As long as he be settled early, he looks one of the class acts in this field and should stay the extended 13f.
Newbury 2.47: Balzac & Capall Rasa
I am taking two against the field here.
BALZAC was deemed good enough to take his chance in the Derby this season, but pulled far too hard to give himself a chance over 12f that day. However a chance to more positive tactics, to make use of his early enthusiasm and a gelding operation look to have generated improvement and he can build on a recent second at Ascot.
Ridden by an inexperienced apprentice that day, he enjoyed making the running, but his pilot moved off the rail, allowing eventual winner Gavriel a free run up the inner. There is not much early pace here and with Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle, Balzac might prove harder to pass this time.
There is plenty to recommend CAPALL RASA as well. He races for the first time for Ed Bethell today since being bought for £215k out of the Tom Dascombe yard. He also races for the first time since coming a strong finishing fifth in the Britannia at Royal Ascot.
He has already tried 10f, here in the London Gold Cup in May, but endured a tough passage and on the evidence of how he finished off at Ascot, looks well worth another go at this distance. If Bethell has been able to bring out any improvement, he could well prove very well in today. It is notable there has been plenty of market support over the past couple of days.
Ayr 3.40: Binhareer, Run Boy Run, Fine Interview
In such a big field and competitive contest I think three attempts are necessary.
I am going in win only on BINHAREER who has had to contend with fast ground all season, but surely has been waiting for conditions like today. He started the season with a cracking second at York, bursting through late but just failing to peg back Dark Thirty.
He then ran a cracker for sixth in the Wokingham on rattling fast ground and was then only beaten 2l in a Group 3 at Newbury. However all three career wins have come on ground good or softer, including a win at the back end of last season at York. He hacked up at this track last summer and went on to be a solid sixth in the Silver Cup. He should be a better and stronger horse now and the far rail draw could be helpful.
RUN BOY RUN won this race in 2025 from a 5lbs lower mark and showed his aptitude for soft ground that day to pretty much make all the running. He has not been quite at his best all season in 2026, but is another who has probably had to cope with faster ground than he ideally wants. He was a fair fourth at Ascot in July but is starting to ease in the handicap now.
He pretty much made all the running to win this last year and an interesting change of headgear from visor to blinkers might just sharpen him up further. In such testing ground, closing up from off the pace could be tricky, so things should be set up nicely for a repeat bid. Twice he has won on genuine soft ground before, so conditions should not be an issue.
However if forced to choose one only it would be FINE INTERVIEW. He is another who has had to be sparingly raced this year, simply because ground conditions have not been in his favour. He was able to get out on the opening weekend before the ground dried up and produced a dominant display to win at Doncaster off 94.
He seemed unsuited by Epsom next time but produced a decent effort at York last month when seventh to Sondad, staying on well late. Whilst there was a bit of cut that day, it was nothing compared to what today will be like. He won twice last October in bad ground over a stiff 6f and has a draw right against the near rail. With plenty enough early pace appearing to be drawn that side, I am hopeful having been kept fresh, this will be an ideal chance for a big race win for this grey.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Theoryofeverything – 1.20 Ayr – 15/2 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – French Duke – 1.37 Newbury – 11/4 general
1pt each-way – Balzac – 2.47 Newbury – 6/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Capall Rasa – 2.47 Newbury – 5/1 Bet365, Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Binhareer – 3.40 Ayr – 4/1 general
0.5pts each-way – Run Boy Run – 3.40 Ayr – 25/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Fine Interview – 3.40 Ayr – 10/1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor, Coral (1/5 odds 1st 5)
