Royal Ascot selections Tuesday 17th June
The opening day of five for the Royal meeting and, as usual the Tuesday provides probably the most consistently classy racing of the week. Three Group 1’s kick us off and the St James’ Palace features the winner of all three of the major 2000 Guineas. However I am opposing them with a very viable alternative. In all I have selections for four races.
Some real speedballs for this 5f sprint, however this race lacks the international edge of recent seasons and this race could prove to be a rare Group 1 winner for the North at the Royal meeting.
REGIONAL is one of the fastest horses out of the stalls in the country, something that has already helped him to a win at the highest level in the Sprint Cup at Haydock. Whilst that was over 6f, he had the pace to win over 5f there, as well as at York last season.
He did not quite have the raw pace to compete with Live in the Dream in the Nunthorpe at York, but this stiffer track will play more to his strengths. He made a very encouraging reappearance when just touched off over 6f at the Curragh last month and that should have put him spot on for today. Fast ground will hold no terrors for the improving 6yo.
Ascot 4.25: Henry Longfellow
In what could prove to be the race of the week, HENRY LONGFELLOW is taken to get his career back on track.
In truth he did very little wrong when unplaced in the French Guineas, never really being put in the race with a chance. Instead he is best viewed on his classy 2yo form when winning a Group 2 and then the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. On both occasions he beat Islands in the Stream (now racing in Hong Kong under the name Stunning Peach and that horse has franked the form on several occasions since.
This horse is bred for further, but showed he possessed plenty of speed last season. I can see this race being a real test at the trip – indeed stablemate Unquestionable could be in there to force the gallop. I think this horse has the natural pace to lie up with the gallop and the stamina to maintain his pace to the line.
Ascot 5.05: Divine Comedy, Nusret & Temporize
The first of the marathon tests at this meeting and I have found three horses here that could well be seriously overpriced.
DIVINE COMEDY won a handicap off just 59 only two years ago, but is improving out of all recognition and did well to win at Haydock last month having been made too much use of in my opinion. She has 9lbs more to carry today, but that virtually all the way success confirmed her stamina.
The ground at Ascot will be much quicker today but she won twice in two runs on fast ground in 2023, so I think she is able to handle all going and has simply been well ahead of the handicapper. Hopefully Kaiya Fraser will ride her with a little more restraint today, but I still think she has more to offer off her new perch of 97.
NUSRET is better known these days for his exploits over hurdles, but I definitely think he is best on fast ground and he rarely gets the opportunity to race over his favoured ground over jumps. He was a fair fifth at the Punchestown Festival when we last saw him in April on yielding going. When he last ran on the flat it was in the Irish Cesarewitch when the going was all against him.
However prior to that he had won off just 2lbs lower with considerable ease over 14 at the Curragh. He was then given too much to do in a valuable race at Leopardstown over 13f. I am sure there is a good race in him on the flat and there is every chance he will have the stamina to do so over this extended trip.
TEMPORIZE is one of just three horses in the field to win over this far on the flat having taken the marathon at Glorious Goodwood last season. Stamina therefore is no issue for him, the only worry being whether the ground might be a bit lively. However he does have winning form in the past on quick ground.
It was quick enough when he made an excellent reappearance at Goodwood last month, chasing home Pledgeofallegiance over 2m who had the benefit of a previous run. Temporize ran right to the line as usual on that occasion and this is likely to have been his target for some considerable time.
Ascot 6.15: Fox Journey & My Mate Mozzie
I quickly narrowed this finale down to two choices and will be backing both.
FOX JOURNEY won by further than ideal with an 11l win at Newmarket last month but could have been hit harder than a 9lb rise in the circumstances. His excellent effort confirms the return to form of the Michael Stoute yard and he has the benefit of Ryan Moore in the saddle today.
Whilst front-running tactics worked brilliantly at Newmarket, his previous form suggests that making the running is not essential and I expect Moore to ease him into contention from just behind the lead. He ran a cracker to be third to the classy Middle Earth on fast ground in the Melrose at York last summer and he could still be one step ahead of the assessor.
MY MATE MOZZIE is not the easiest to win with, but he always runs his race and this could be just the type of race to fall perfectly for him. He looked the likeliest winner a furlong out in the Irish Cesarewitch, but probably hit the front too soon and faded into fifth late on. It is possible however that he might have run out of stamina on the soft going and he definitely has the pace to compete over 3f shorter and faster ground today.
He was classy enough to be second in a Grade1 novice chase over Christmas before finding the ground too soft at Cheltenham. He has scraped into the field off the bottom rating and I expect him to be covered up and delivered for a late run here, where he is more likely to find for pressure.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Regional – 3.45 Ascot – 9/3 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Henry Longfellow – 4.25 Ascot – 9/2 Ladbrokes. Coral
0.5pts each-way – Divine Comedy – 5.05 Ascot – 11/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes (1/5 odds1st 5)
1pt each-way – Nusret – 5.05 Ascot – 12/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Temporize – 5.05 Ascot – 25/1 Coral (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Fox Journey – 6.15 Ascot – 5/1 Bet 365, Coral (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – My Mate Mozzie – 6.15 Ascot – 15/2 William Hill, BetVictor (1/5 odds 1st 5)
