Ascot selections Saturday 17th October
Champions Day at Ascot and run on ground faster than is often then case at this time of year. It does not look like a vintage card, but it is a very competitive one, and I have selections for three races on the afternoon. We had a frustrating day full of seconds in the previous column, also at Ascot, but collected each-way on Regional (sp 12/1), Arctic Dawn (advised 33/1) and Moonfall (advised 5/1).
Ascot 2.05: Paborus
With a draw against the far rail, there is a chance PABORUS could be handily placed along the rail, but he has a form chance in any case of chased home Almeraq in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last month and there is potential for him to overturn the form on quicker ground.
There is no doubt that Almeraq relished the softer conditions and whilst he got away with firm ground when getting up to win on the line over course and distance at the Royal meeting, Almeraq could be vulnerable back on quicker going. Paborus will have no issues with the conditions and this lightly raced 5yo is a strong traveller who definitely has more to offer.
I don’t think he quite lasted 7f on rain softened ground at York in August, where he again travelled well for a long way, and perhaps a stiff 6f is where we will see him at his best. He already has a Group 3 win over 6f this season at Newcastle and he goes into this race off just three races all season, so he should not have gone over the top yet having started back only at the end of June.
Ascot 3.20: Gstaad
An open looking QEII but there has been plenty of market support for GSTAAD in recent days and I think the stiff, straight mile will suit him perfectly, especially as stablemate Hawk Mountain looks likely to set a strong gallop for him.
An easy winner of the Coventry here last season, he gave Bow Echo a huge fright in the St James Palace this season, where he was off the bridle a long way out. However that was round a bend and I think Gstaad can get into a better rhythm on the straight track. He again gave Bow Echo a real race in the Sussex, but Goodwood is more of a pace track than Ascot, and Gstaad will give a stronger performance at this venue.
Whilst he was a bit disappointing at Longchamp last time, the pace that day was not overly taxing and the O’Brien horses were going through a dip in form at the time. I expect Gstaad to bounce back and power through the closing stages here.
Ascot 4.35: Classic & Fifth Column
In a typically open looking Balmoral I have hopefully found some value with these two options.
CLASSIC has turned into a real reliable yardstick the past couple of seasons and is never far away in these big mile handicaps. A winner of a valuable prize at Sandown last summer, he won another big one in the spring at Newbury and finished a fine third in the Golden Mile at Goodwood.
His two runs here have been with credit, finishing ninth from an unpromising position in the Hunt Cup and fourth most recently at the September meeting. In a classy race he has a nice racing weight of 9-2 and stall seven could be a useful berth with the stalls positioned on the low side of the track.
FIFTH COLUMN won four times last season, including a fast ground mile handicap at York’s Ebor meeting. However this term has not been as successful with just the one strong run, when second on 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket. However he has raced only twice since then and there have been excuses for those most recent performances.
He was 6th of 20 in his group in the Hunt Cup which was a perfectly respectable effort from what in hindsight was an almost impossible draw. He then looked to be slightly in need of the run at Doncaster last month, tiring late on, but still only 4l behind Scoville. He should have come on for that and looks to have been targeted with this prize in mind. The usual cheekpieces have been replaced with a visor today which might also serve to sharpen him up.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Paborus – 2.5 Ascot – 16/1 BetVictor (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Gstaad – 3.20 Ascot – 11/4 Unibet
1pt each-way – Classic– 4.35 Ascot– 20/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Fifth Column – 4.35 Ascot – 16/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 5)
