Newcastle selections Saturday 28th June
It is the big day of the year at Newcastle where the Northumberland Plate is the centrepiece of an excellent card on the All Weather. In an open race I have three suggestions for the feature, plus selections from three other races on the afternoon. Completely Random was placed for the each-way bet in the Wokingham last Saturday (advised 10/1).
Newcastle 1.40: Fivethousandtoone & Drama
A feature of racing here yesterday evening was a strong headwind making it hard for the front-runners to keep going. A similar story is expected today, so I have two hold up horses for the opener.
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE is yet to show anywhere near the level of form for current handler Tim Easterby, the ability he showed with Andrew Balding. However the usual headgear he sports has largely been missing and he did show up better with cheekpieces back on at Ripon last time.
They are retained today, and he is probably a better horse on the All Weather having enjoyed his big moment when winning over this course and distance on All Weather finals day last spring. That win came from a mark of 98, 3lbs higher than today. He is usually at his best when held up for a late run and should get a strong pace to run at today, especially with the same owner having front-runner Sergeant Wilko in the race.
A strong pace should also suit DRAMA who might have bombed out on his last two starts on turf, but is very progressive on an artificial surface. He is not the easiest of rides, but quickened up well to win at Kempton last time out when well fancied, and looks capable of taking this step up in grade even with a 7lbs rise.
He had been a good third previously at Southwell when he probably raced too freely for his own good in first time cheekpieces. The booking of Saffie Osborne looks a good choice as she is very good at saving plenty for a fast finish and this race might just set up perfectly for the 4yo.
Newcastle 2.10: Ferrous
The Group 3 sprint looks best left to the most progressive contender in the field in FERROUS.
He has always been a horse with plenty of potential, but I think trainer Jack Channon has worked out the keys to this horse now. He is best on the All Weather with an exceptional record of 7-9. He also is best with gaps between his races and he comes here off a six week break since winning a handicap off 102 over this course and distance.
He is another who ought to be suited by the way this should be run as he likes to come through horses, so should be covered up from the headwind until late.
Newcastle 3.15: Whos Glen, Charging Thunder & Dancing in Paris
A wide open looking Plate and I think three stabs are required here.
WHO’S GLEN ran with great credit to be fifth in the Chester Cup last week given it was his first run on fast ground turf. That effort confirmed he is best with a test of stamina and as a 4yo has not had many goes at 2m yet.
He does seem best on an artificial surface and was fourth here over 12f in the Racing League last season, before finishing second at Southwell in the same competition a week later. He was second on his first attempt at 2m at Kempton on his seasonal return this season and will be sharper now.
CHARGING THUNDER is an interesting outsider as you can just draw a line through his run in the Chester Cup where he was held so wide throughout. James Owen has done a great job since picking him up last year, winning four times with the gelding.
That includes a win on the All Weather at Southwell in March over this 2m trip, proving his stamina. Although only fifth there the following month, this hold up horse simply had too much to do in an a slowly run race and still kept on in a fashion suggesting he remains on a fair mark. Hopefully that headwind will bring his strong finishing effort more into play today.
If he gets the trip DANCING IN PARIS is going to be a serious danger. He was a close third last time at Goodwood, narrowly beaten by the subsequent Ascot winner French Master, suggesting he is building to peak fitness.
It also suggested his new mark of 89 is still reasonable despite making strong progress through the ranks in 2024. The highlight was a win in the Racing League at Southwell, but wins at York and Ascot confirmed his versatility. The big issue is the distance, but there does not look an abundance of pace in the race, so his stamina might well be preserved accordingly.
Newcastle 3.45: Rare Change
Provided he has recovered from his exertions at Pontefract on Sunday, RARE CHANGE can take advantage of the 9lbs weight allowance and continue his improvement this term.
Outpaced early over 6f, the turbo kicked in turning for home as Rare Change ultimately won going away from his opposition at Pontefract. He had already produced a rare last to first performance at York to win over this 7f trip so we know he has the stamina for this distance – indeed he will surely improve for it.
You can ignore his run in a typically rough Goodwood contest last month as he was repeatedly denied a run on the rail and although he has only one run on the All Weather so far, that was a solid third place at Kempton and Richard Hughes’ horses tend to really act well on an artificial surface.
Recommended bets:
0.5pts each-way – Fivethousandtoone – 1.40 Newcastle – 14/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Drama – 1.40 Newcastle – 8/1 William Hill, BetVictor (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Ferrous – 2.10 Newcastle – 5/2 general
1pt each-way – Who’s Glen – 3.15 Newcastle – 8/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5 pts each-way – Charging Thunder – 3.15 Newcastle – 33/1 Ladbrokes, Coral (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Dancing in Paris – 3.15 Newcastle – 11/1 Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Rare Change – 3.45 Newcastle – 5/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 4)
