Ascot & York selections Saturday 26th July
The big midsummer open Group 1 for the middle distance horses, the King George is the highlight today. It looks a race that tactically is very predictable to forecast, and one I think could set up nicely for the veteran in the field. Otherwise there is a high number of big field handicaps to get stuck into and I like the look of two of those at Ascot and the Dash at York. We had the forecast up in the big hurdle at Market Rasen last week with Cavern Club (SP 8/1) winning and Kihavah second for the each-way (advised 7/1).
York 2.00: Pocklington & Rock Opera
Two horses at opposite ends of the class spectrum are fancied here.
POCKLINGTON has already raced at Group 1 level, when down the field in the Commonwealth Cup last year, but might well be up to pattern company in time. If so a current rating of 95 can be exploited and his seasonal debut at Newcastle had plenty of positives associated with it.
Considering his lengthy absence he was incredibly well fancied at Newcastle, suggesting he had been doing well at home, and he ran accordingly, losing by the smallest possible margin to our fancy Fivethousandtoone. He has had four weeks to get over that run, so the bounce factor ought not to be an issue. Although he was only tenth on his only previous start here at the Ebor meeting last year, he absolutely flew home over 110 yard shorter and this 6f distance brings him right into the equation.
ROCK OPERA has to run here from 2lbs out of the handicap, but has a 7lb claimer on board to help and he is consistent enough over this course and distance to worth chancing. One factor that should be in his favour is a low draw, which is usually an advantage here on decent ground, and was the place to be in the big field sprint yesterday.
He did not get the clearest of runs here two weeks ago, but had been ultra consistent prior to that, notably when third here at the end of May from just a 1lb lower mark. He is a strong stayer at this trip, the faster they go the stronger he will be at the finish, so this big field should ensure that strong gallop.
Ascot 3.00: Akkadian Thunder, Billyjoh & Qazaq
A typically open looking Ascot big field handicap and as usual I am looking for strong finishers from off the pace to come good.
AKKADIAN THUNDER has been in good form this season, winning on another track favouring hold up performers at Doncaster, before excelling when second at the Royal meeting, both over this 7f distance.
He was never really involved in the Bunbury Cup last week, but I don’t think Newmarket suits as well and he was arguably drawn on the wrong side that day anyway. A high draw was a help to him here at the Royal fixture and if there is a similar draw bias today, he is well placed to take advantage from twenty.
BILLYJOH has been a regular competitor against Akkadian Thunder, the two running in those same three races mentioned. He was 1.5l behind him at Doncaster last month, but has a potentially telling 8lbs pull today.
You can ignore his run at Royal Ascot as his stall 3 turned out to be hopeless given the first six home that day were drawn 25-32. However he was ahead of Akkadian Thunder in the Bunbury, producing his usual strong finishing burst to take third. He is difficult to win with, being on a losing run of 18 now, but has good form here with two second places including the 7f handicap at the 2024 Royal meeting and he will surely fall into one of these big races soon.
At decent odds a small bet on QAZAQ looks worthy. This horse won his first three starts, all on the All Weather and finally made his turf debut at Newmarket last month. He showed enough on that occasion to suggest he should handle turf fine.
Indeed his dam Qabala won a Group 3 and was then third in the 1000 Guineas on fast ground turf in 2019, so he might even be better for a fast turf surface. Quite a keen goer, he has won over both 7f and a mile, so stamina is no issue, but getting plenty of cover in a big field 7f contest might just bring out the best in him. If he has anything like the ability of his mother a current rating of 92 can be exploited.
Ascot 3.35: Teroomm & Mythical Guest
Any number of potential unexposed 3yo’s here and the one I like most of those is TEROOMM, who endured a troubled passage when down the field at the Royal meeting last month.
I can easily forgive him that, as he was travelling well enough for the most part and this horse was a good winner of the Silver Bowl at Haydock on his first attempt in a handicap. He is a very genuine sort who acts well on fast ground and could still be ahead of his mark.
MYTHICAL GUEST might lack the potential class of a few, but George Margarson has found another horse for the owners capable of competing in the big Ascot handicaps. He has already placed twice here in his two previous visits to the track this season including at the last meeting here two weeks ago.
Formerly ridden prominently, he has coped well with more patient tactics in recent races, something which should stand him in good stead today. The booking of apprentice of the moment Warren Fentiman has to be a plus and makes him potentially well in with that 5lbs claim.
Ascot 4.10: Rebels Romance
A surprisingly good price, despite his heroics here at the Royal meeting, REBELS ROMANCE can become the first 7yo to win the King George.
Often raced from the front, Rebels Romance took well to hold up tactics in the Hardwicke and showed his usual tenacious spirit to fight off allcomers in the straight. Twice a Breeders Cup Turf winner, he is clearly running as well as ever this season.
I think we can take it that the two Ballydoyle runners will head straight to the front with the intention of drawing the finishing sting out of Calandagan. Will that mean though that Jan Brueghel will do too much in front in first time cheekpieces and run out of steam himself. A strong stayer he might also lack the pure speed for a sharp 12f and this might just set up for Rebels Romance to pounce in the straight.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Pocklington – 2.0 York – 5/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Rock Opera – 2.0 York – 18/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Akkadian Thunder – 3.00 Ascot – 4/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Billyjoh – 3.00 Ascot – 9/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 6)
0.5pts each-way – Qazaq – 3.00 Ascot – 20/1 Bet365, Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Teroomm – 3.35 Ascot – 11/2 William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Mythical Guest – 3.35 Ascot – 12/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Rebels Romance – 4.10 Ascot – 6/1 William Hill (¼ odds 1st 2)
