Epsom selections Saturday 7th June
If the worst of the promised weather arrives at Epsom on Saturday we could be looking at the softest Derby day ground for over 40 years. That could change the complexion of the big race, and indeed the entire card completely. I have two selections for the big race, both of whom might find any cut in the ground in their favour. I also have selections from three top handicaps elsewhere on the card. We had to settle for each-way places from JM Jungle (4/1) and Bergerac (10/1) last week.
Epsom 2.45: JM Jungle & Existent
The Dash might turn more into a quite fast run if we get a lot of rain, but I have two selections for what would normally the fastest run race in the calendar.
I am sticking loyal to JM JUNGLE who went close to defying top weight at York last week, where he was probably not helped by a high draw. Having also run well at York last month, this horse is clearly at the top of the game and he does not quite have the burden of top weight this afternoon.
This strong traveller already has a win at a similar downland track in Goodwood to his name, and he was a fair fourth in the 3yo Dash here in 2023. He also has winning form on soft ground in the past. Given the usual proviso of luck in running at this track it is difficult to see him finishing out of the places at least.
It is now more than three years and forty races since EXISTENT last got his head in front in a race. He appears as good as ever though and four consecutive second placings, whilst no doubt frustrating for connections, prove he is in top form at present. Perhaps a quirky race at a quirky track like this might just persuade him to go past the leader this time.
He needs delivering late, but has the class to sit just in behind the pace and stall 14 should be a help.
Although he does most of his running on a sound surface these days, he does have soft and heavy ground winning form in the past and a softer ground contest today will give him a little more time to make his way through the field.
Epsom 3.30: Lambourn & Pride of Arras
A fascinating Derby and I have two for the Classic.
First choice is PRIDE OF ARRAS who ultimately ran out an impressive winner of the primary Trial race, the Dante at York. Whilst that was a muddling affair, run at a steady pace, he showed marked acceleration in the closing stages, finishing well on top. Plenty of those behind him turn up today, suggesting it was a classy race and that was some effort on only his second racecourse start.
He does of course have stamina to prove upped to 12f today in what is likely to be a stronger run affair. His dam won over this distance and raced over as far as 14f, while plenty of her progeny stay far enough to run (quite well) over hurdles. Plenty of the Beckett stable also enjoy soft ground, so hopefully testing conditions won’t become an issue.
If it really becomes a war of attrition though, LAMBOURN looks best set to take advantage. He looks a lazy sort who would not be considered quick enough to win a normal Derby on good ground. However he does find for pressure as exemplified by his strong finish to wear down Lazy Griff in the Chester Vase over this trip.
He was also doing all his best work in the final furlong when getting to within 2l of Delacroix at Leopardstown. Whilst I don’t think he would normally be good enough to turn the tables, if it really comes up soft, Lambourn will stay as well as anything and that might prove sufficient.
Epsom 4.15: Valvano & Small Fry
A typically competitive handicap over the Derby distance which also merits two bets.
First choice here must be VALVANO who has not won since scoring in a heavy ground Nottingham maiden as a juvenile, but has caught the eye more than once in handicaps. That included on his last start at Goodwood where he came from too far back on that sharp track over 10f. Nevertheless that will have served to put him spot on for today.
He stayed well enough at this trip when fifth in the November Handicap on proper soft going at Doncaster and also looked a horse to follow when third in tough conditions at York last autumn. First time cheekpieces might help sharpen him up early, so keeping him in the race throughout.
SMALL FRY has won four times on the flat since transferring to the Moore yard at this time last season and can make a successful step up in class here. A solid third over C&D on his seasonal return, he got back to winning ways when landing a handicap at the Chester May meeting on good going under today’s pilot Ashley Lewis.
However he has plenty of form on softer ground too including on this track last September. He also has winning form over further, winning over 14f at Chester, so any further softening of the going will be no inconvenience to this gelding.
Epsom 5.40: Circe & Eye of Dubai
Two more suggestions for the finale.
The progressive CIRCE can easily land the hat-trick having improved for a drop in distance recently. She showed good speed to win at Newmarket and then battling qualities to wear down Change Sings at Windsor last month.
Those wins came on quicker ground, but she has form on softer in the past. She won her maiden on soft going at the 2023 Leger meeting at Doncaster and even won over as far as a mile at Newbury last season. So more testing conditions will bring her proven stamina into play.
EYE OF DUBAI is another who will enjoy every drop of rain. He was well beaten on his only start of 2025 to date, back on the opening weekend of the season at Doncaster. However he is better judged on his soft ground form from last term.
That included wins in the autumn in valuable handicaps at both Ripon and Doncaster. Indeed his career record on soft/heavy going reads 2131331. He is only 3lbs higher than for that last win at Doncaster and stall 7 should allow jockey Jason Hart to choose his path, especially if softer ground takes the field stands side.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – JM Jungle – 2.45 Epsom – 7/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Existent – 2.45 Epsom – 11/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
1pt each-way – Pride of Arras – 3.30 Epsom – 5/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 4)
0.5pts each-way – Lambourn – 3.30 Epsom – 11/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt win – Valvano – 4.15 Epsom – 10/3 Bet365, William Hill
1pt win – Small Fry – 4.15 Epsom – 16/5 BetVictor
1pt each-way – Circe – 5.40 Epsom – 9/2 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Eye of Dubai – 5.40 Epsom – 11/2 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 4)
