Ayr & Newbury selections Saturday 20th September
The big race in the Scottish flat racing calendar, the Ayr Gold Cup takes place today with the usual cavalry charge down the straight. I have two selections for the big race plus a best bet elsewhere on the card and I have also focussed on two races from the other big fixture at Newbury. We had a strong Saturday at Doncaster with the Leger winner Scandinavia (advised 5/2) and the Portland winner Eternal Sunshine (12/1).
Ayr 1.15: Northern Express
One of the most consistent and durable performers on the flat racing scene, NORTHERN EXPRESS is yet to get his head in front in 2025, but a slightly declining handicap mark offers him an excellent opportunity for a win today.
This prominent racer will enjoy a sharp mile around a bend here and was last seen being beaten just 2l in an ultra competitive contest at the Ebor meeting at York. This does not look quite as tough and he has been dropped a further pound to 98, his lowest rating since finishing second at Royal Ascot off 97 in 2023 (has won twice off higher since).
Although he races most regularly on good ground nowadays, he has certainly not been found wanting in softer conditions, finishing second in a listed race at Redcar on his last attempt on soft going. He was a highly creditable eighth in the Ayr Gold Cup on this card twelve months ago, but really a mile is his trip now and this looks a much more winnable contest for him this time around.
Newbury 2.05: Dramatic Star
William Haggas saddles two fancied runners in this handicap, but stable jockey Tom Marquand has sided with DRAMATIC STAR and as long as we don’t get too much rain before race time that looks a sound choice.
This horse was just touched off late on by another stablemate in The Reverend in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock two weeks ago and this slight drop by a furlong in distance will help him get home on slightly slower ground. He is lightly raced this season having only made his seasonal debut at the Shergar Cup last month, so should be rounding into peak fitness for today.
Haggas’ horses usually improve with time and with so few miles on the clock there is still plenty of room for this horse to show his true potential. The weather has been largely dry over the past 48 hours at Newbury which will be a help as this gelding is unproven on very soft ground.
Newbury 2.40: Theory of Tides
I am hoping the bounce factor won’t come into the equation here as THEORY OF TIDES looks the class angle in this handicap, provided he backs up a fine seasonal return at York just thirteen days ago.
Having won a couple of novice contests in the spring of 2024, the Gosdens decided to throw him in at the deep end for the King Edward at Royal Ascot. He did prove up to that grade and was then disappointing in a couple of back end handicaps that autumn, with headgear not proving much help.
Gelded since, we did not see him back on the track until York this month. He ran really well given low market confidence, holding every chance over 1f out before understandably getting tired. That proved though he is on a fair mark of 91 and if coming on for that run he holds very strong claims, especially as he already has winning form with cut.
Ayr 3.35: Run Boy Run & Strike Red
On the balance of evidence so far this week, far side has been better than near, but it has not always followed that pattern for the whole week of this meeting. With early pace seemingly evenly distributed across the course, I am taking one from each side of the course.
RUN BOY RUN comes from six and ran really well when fourth in the Portland at Doncaster last weekend over a few yards shorter. That came off the back of a fine fourth in the Stewards Cup too. In between he was well beaten at York but it could be that he has a preference now for some cut which bodes well for today.
He has plenty of winning form over 7f – proven stamina over further is often a useful asset in a race as competitive as this. He also has winning form on soft last year and it is possible he is on the fastest part of the track.
STRIKE RED is always to be feared when the ground is soft. He was much closer to Northern Ticker than Run Boy Run at York on unfavoured firm ground, and was also second in the Stewards Cup on more favoured conditions at Goodwood.
Last autumn he excelled when conditions got really testing, winning a good handicap at York on soft. He also boasts a soft ground win in the Scurry at the Curragh back in 2023. Given his consistency this season during a dry summer, now he can show that form with the going far more to his liking.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Northern Express – 1.15 Ayr – 7/1 Betfred (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Dramatic Star – 2.05 Newbury – 6/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Theory of Tides – 2.40 Newbury – 4/1 general (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Run Boy Run – 3.35 Ayr – 14/1 Bet365, Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1st 6)
1pt each-way – Strike Red – 3.35 Ayr – 14/1 general (most bookies 1/5 odds 1st 6)
