Ayr selections Saturday 18th April
The big National circuit heads to Ayr for the Scottish National and these days the whole meeting on the west coast is worthy of Festival status. So the National is one of just four races under the microscope today.
Ayr 1.10: Moudan
With persistent rain yesterday, the ground at Ayr is going to be as soft as it has been for quite some time on this day. That will be to the advantage of MOUDAN who has been quietly progressive on soft ground this spring.
He was disappointing at Gowran last month when only fifth on heavy going, but was hassled constantly on the front end and I am happy to write that race off. Ridden with slightly more restraint at Navan next time, he responded with a much stronger performance that saw him find plenty for pressure in the straight and come home clear of Park That.
He was then a game second at the big Fairyhouse meeting a couple of weeks ago in a listed handicap. There are no issues with him on this going, unlike a few of his fancied opponents and although we have lost three places for each-way purposes, I still think he is the value angle.
Ayr 1.45: Diamond Dealer & Big John Wayne
A bold jumping front-runner, DIAMOND DEALER is made for a track like Ayr, where he can get into a rhythm and prove difficult to catch with four fences and a short run-in up the home straight.
He made all to win on chasing debut at Kelso in the autumn, and has progressed nicely from there, the one blot on his record coming when failing to stay 4m in the Borders National at the same track when simply racing too freely. He won again over 2m5f at the venue last time, but with two wins to his name over 3m already, stamina should not be an issue again. He does have to prove his ability to handle really deep ground, but I think he could once again make all.
If there is one to come and pass him from off the pace, BIG JOHN WAYNE looks likeliest. He has had a quiet first season over fences, meaning he should come into this race nice and fresh. 2M was clearly too sharp a test for him on his comeback from over a year off here in January.
However he showed up well against far more experienced handicappers over 2m4f here next time, losing his place before staying on well. He enjoyed the much stiffer track at Hexham over the same distance on his last start, finding plenty for pressure when challenged. He showed a round action that day, so should enjoy the soft going, whilst the step up to 3m on a flatter track will be in his favour.
Ayr 2.20: Captain Hugo
Whilst it is entirely possible that Tutti Quanti could do just what he did in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury and gallop the field into submission, it wasn’t a good sign that he was so reluctant to start in the Champion Hurdle and I think he is too risky a proposition fearing a repeat here at short odds. Instead I prefer the look of CAPTAIN HUGO who showed a good aptitude for high level handicaps at Kelso last time.
That win in the Morebattle came despite a jumping error at the last flight and showed great tenacity to fight back and pass Serious Challenge late on. Earlier in the season he looked like he might have Grade 1 potential when comfortably seeing off the challenge of the very useful Sinnatra at Newbury.
Whilst he was then beaten at Aintree, another win followed at Haydock and he would have probably won the Supreme Trial race at Musselburgh but for falling three out. That probably persuaded connections to go down the handicap route with him for now and on the evidence of Kelso that was a decision well made. The presence of Tutti Quanti means he gets in with a nice racing weight of 10-10 and should the favourite misbehave he looks well set to take advantage.
Ayr 3.35: King of Answers & Herakles Westwood
A smaller than usual field for the Scottish National, especially with the change of ground yesterday. I have two suggestions for horses that will appreciate the added stamina test.
First choice would be KING OF ANSWERS for whom it would appear no trip is too far. He came from way back in the field to finish second to Holloway Queen in the longest race at the Cheltenham Festival, that coming after a 3m heavy ground win at Kelso on his previous outing.
There is no doubt this horse stays forever, even on very testing ground. This sharper track would have worried me on drier conditions, as would the potential for a 30 runner field as sometimes happens as he could simply get too far behind to catch up. However with only 17 runners on very soft going, he should be able to keep close enough in contention until his stamina kicks in on the final circuit.
HERAKLES WESTWOOD has been a bit up and down this season, and has run all his four races at Cheltenham. I am not sure that track suits him ideally though and I wonder if a switch to 4m on a flat track on testing ground might just be what he needs.
He was a good second on heavy ground at Cheltenham for his reappearance and then ran as well as could be expected from 9lbs wrong at the weights when beaten just 6l at the same venue next time. Of course his handicap mark suffered as a result but he defied a mark of 135 to beat Katate Dori there on New Years Day. The ground might have been a bit quick for him at the Festival and he was forced to race wide for the most part. I think he is worth another try today though as he has always promised to stay 4m and has a good record on flatter tracks, winning at both Windsor and Newbury last season.
Recommended bets:
1pt each-way – Moudan – 1.10 Ayr – 6/1 Unibet (1/4 odds 1st 2)
1pt win – Diamond Dealer – 1.45 Ayr – 7/2 Unibet
1pt each-way – Big John Wayne – 1.45 Ayr – 7/1 Ladbrokes, Corals (1/5 odds 1st 4)
1pt each-way – Captain Hugo – 2.20 Ayr – 9/2 William Hill (1/4 odds 1st 3)
1pt each-way – King of Answers – 3.35 Ayr – 13/2 Unibet (1/5 odds 1st 5)
0.5pts each-way – Herakles Westwood – 3.35 Ayr – 20/1 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1st 5)
